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- January 2019
- Article
Bubbles for Fama
By: Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You
We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio...
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Keywords:
Bubble;
Market Efficiency;
Predictability;
Price Bubble;
Stocks;
Price;
Forecasting and Prediction
- 2018
- Working Paper
Diagnostic Bubbles
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer
We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and...
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- August 2018
- Article
Extrapolation and Bubbles
By: Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin and Andrei Shleifer
We present an extrapolative model of bubbles. In the model, many investors form their demand for a risky asset by weighing two signals: an average of the asset’s past price changes and the asset’s degree of overvaluation. The two signals are in conflict, and investors...
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- February 2018 (Revised May 2019)
- Case
CEWD: Closing the Skills Gap
By: William Kerr, Michael Norris and Manjari Raman
In 2018, Ann Randazzo, executive director of the Center for Energy Workforce Development (CEWD) is assessing the organization’s performance since its 2006 founding. Founded to address an imminent retirement bubble of middle skills workers in the utilities industry,...
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- January 5, 2017
- Article
The U.S. Media's Problems Are Much Bigger than Fake News and Filter Bubbles
By: Bharat Anand
- November 2016 (Revised February 2017)
- Case
Square, Inc. IPO
By: Ramana Nanda, Robert White and Lauren G. Pickle
In November 2015, Square, Inc. launched its initial public offering (IPO). The IPO had an offering price of $9 per share, lower than the $11 to $13 estimate that had been outlined in the preliminary prospectus and 42% below the $15.50 share price in its most recent...
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- 2015
- Book
Land Bargains and Chinese Capitalism: The Politics of Property Rights under Reform
By: Meg Rithmire
Land reforms have been critical to the development of Chinese capitalism over the last several decades, yet land in China remains publicly owned. This book explores the political logic of reforms to land ownership and control, accounting for how land development and...
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- March 2012 (Revised October 2012)
- Case
Hayman Capital Management
By: Robin Greenwood, Julie Messina and Jared Dourdeville
In late December 2011, Hayman Capital founder and portfolio manager Kyle Bass was reviewing Japanese government budget projections for 2012. The projections appeared contrary to Hayman Capital's views on Japan, where the fund had built a bearish position. Japan had the...
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- March 2012
- Article
The Incentive Bubble
By: Mihir Desai
The past three decades have seen American capitalism quietly transformed by a single, powerful idea—that financial markets are a suitable tool for measuring performance and structuring compensation. Stock instruments for managers, high-powered incentive contracts for...
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- May 2011
- Background Note
Scale Effects, Network Effects, and Investment Strategy
By: Willy Shih
This technical note discusses scale economies, and direct and indirect network effects in the context of building better business models. Some of the great business disasters of the dot.com bubble were companies that scaled their infrastructure without working through...
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- March 2011
- Supplement
Gold in 2011 (CW)
By: Robin Greenwood
Courseware for case 211095.
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- March 2011 (Revised April 2011)
- Case
Gold in 2011: Bubble or Safe Haven Asset?
By: Robin Greenwood and Benjamin Steiner
Case explores the pricing of gold in 2011. Is the pricing justified or are we in a speculative bubble? What data are useful in determining a view on this question?
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Keywords:
Inflation and Deflation;
Money;
Asset Management;
Investment;
Price Bubble;
Policy;
Risk Management
- 2014
- Working Paper
Financing Risk and Innovation
By: Ramana Nanda and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf
We provide a model of investment into new ventures that demonstrates why some places, times, and industries should be associated with a greater degree of experimentation by investors. Investors respond to financing risk―a forecast of limited future funding―by modifying...
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- July 2010 (Revised August 2021)
- Supplement
Vereinigung Hamburger Schiffsmakler und Schiffsagenten e.V. (VHSS): Valuing Ships (CW)
By: Benjamin C. Esty and Albert W. Sheen
After booming for more than five years, the global shipping (maritime) industry experienced a dramatic crash in late 2008 as the global financial system froze and the global economy slid into recession. Ship charter rates (revenue) fell by as much as 90% causing prices...
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- February 2010 (Revised August 2010)
- Case
Sheikh Mohammed and the Making of 'Dubai, Inc.'
By: Anthony Mayo, Nitin Nohria, Umaimah Mendhro and Johnathan Cromwell
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum has converted Dubai from a sleepy little coastal village into a world-class city, famous for its ambition, drive, and economic promise. He is the founder, part-owner, and visionary behind companies such as Emirates Airlines, a...
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- September 2009 (Revised January 2011)
- Teaching Note
Trouble with a Bubble (TN)
By: Tom Nicholas
Teaching Note for [808067].
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Keywords:
United States
- August 2009
- Article
Inexperienced Investors and Bubbles
By: Robin Greenwood and Stefan Nagel
We use mutual fund manager data from the technology bubble to examine the hypothesis that inexperienced investors play a role in the formation of asset price bubbles. Using age as a proxy for managers' investment experience, we find that around the peak of the...
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- 4 Jun 2009 - 7 Jun 2009
- Conference Presentation
High-Tech IPOs in the US, UK and Europe After the Dot-Com Bubble
By: Frank Nagle and Keith Pilbeam
- April 2009 (Revised December 2015)
- Case
Dot.com: Online Pet Retailing
By: Tom Nicholas and David Chen
From 1995 to 1999, the U.S. experienced a period of tremendous growth in its information technology (IT) sector. The IT industry, although it accounted for less than 10% of the U.S. economy's total output, contributed disproportionately to economic growth. One market...
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