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Publications

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      • Faculty Publications  (122)

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      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Dynamic Personalization with Multiple Customer Signals: Multi-Response State Representation in Reinforcement Learning

      By: Liangzong Ma, Ta-Wei Huang, Eva Ascarza and Ayelet Israeli
      Reinforcement learning (RL) offers potential for optimizing sequences of customer interactions by modeling the relationships between customer states, company actions, and long-term value. However, its practical implementation often faces significant challenges.... View Details
      Keywords: Dynamic Policy; Deep Reinforcement Learning; Representation Learning; Dynamic Difficulty Adjustment; Latent Variable Models; Customer Relationship Management; Customer Value and Value Chain; Foreign Direct Investment; Analytics and Data Science
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      Ma, Liangzong, Ta-Wei Huang, Eva Ascarza, and Ayelet Israeli. "Dynamic Personalization with Multiple Customer Signals: Multi-Response State Representation in Reinforcement Learning." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-037, February 2025.
      • January 2025
      • Case

      AI Meets VC: The Data-Driven Revolution at Quantum Light Capital

      By: Lauren Cohen, Grace Headinger and Sophia Pan
      Ilya Kondrashov, CEO of Quantum Light Capital, was driven to harness AI for identifying high-potential scale-ups. Collaborating with Nik Storonsky, founder of Revolut, the duo observed that most venture capital (VC) decisions were heavily influenced by emotion, with... View Details
      Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Business Finance; Data Analysis; Angel Investors; Cognitive Biases; Scale; Venture Capital; Investment; Business Model; Forecasting and Prediction; Technological Innovation; Innovation Strategy; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Public Opinion; Private Sector; Business Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Business Earnings; Behavioral Finance; AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Business Startups; Financial Services Industry; London; United Kingdom
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      Cohen, Lauren, Grace Headinger, and Sophia Pan. "AI Meets VC: The Data-Driven Revolution at Quantum Light Capital." Harvard Business School Case 225-053, January 2025.
      • July 2024
      • Article

      How Artificial Intelligence Constrains Human Experience

      By: A. Valenzuela, S. Puntoni, D. Hoffman, N. Castelo, J. De Freitas, B. Dietvorst, C. Hildebrand, Y.E. Huh, R. Meyer, M. Sweeney, S. Talaifar, G. Tomaino and K. Wertenbroch
      Many consumption decisions and experiences are digitally mediated. As a consequence, consumer behavior is increasingly the joint product of human psychology and ubiquitous algorithms (Braun et al. 2024; cf. Melumad et al. 2020). The coming of age of Large Language... View Details
      Keywords: Large Language Model; User Experience; AI and Machine Learning; Consumer Behavior; Technology Adoption; Risk and Uncertainty; Cost vs Benefits
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      Valenzuela, A., S. Puntoni, D. Hoffman, N. Castelo, J. De Freitas, B. Dietvorst, C. Hildebrand, Y.E. Huh, R. Meyer, M. Sweeney, S. Talaifar, G. Tomaino, and K. Wertenbroch. "How Artificial Intelligence Constrains Human Experience." Journal of the Association for Consumer Research 9, no. 3 (July 2024): 241–256.
      • February 2024 (Revised February 2024)
      • Teaching Note

      Travelogo: Understanding Customer Journeys

      By: Eva Ascarza and Ta-Wei Huang
      Teaching Note for HBS Exercise 524-044. The exercise aims to teach students about 1) Customer Segmentation; and 2) constructing buying personas, 3) Get actionable insights from clickstream data. View Details
      Keywords: Customer Relationship Management; Analysis; Analytics and Data Science; Marketing Strategy; Segmentation; Consumer Behavior; Travel Industry; United States
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      Ascarza, Eva, and Ta-Wei Huang. "Travelogo: Understanding Customer Journeys." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 524-045, February 2024. (Revised February 2024.)
      • January 2024 (Revised February 2024)
      • Exercise

      Travelogo: Understanding Customer Journeys

      By: Eva Ascarza, Nicolas Padilla and Oded Netzer
      In late May 2023, Sarah Merino, the newly appointed manager of the Customer Insights group at Travelogo—an online travel booking platform—initiates a comprehensive analysis of clickstream data to understand the varied behaviors and needs of their users. In preparation... View Details
      Keywords: Customer Relationship Management; Analysis; Analytics and Data Science; Marketing Strategy; Segmentation; Consumer Behavior; Travel Industry; United States
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      Ascarza, Eva, Nicolas Padilla, and Oded Netzer. "Travelogo: Understanding Customer Journeys." Harvard Business School Exercise 524-044, January 2024. (Revised February 2024.)
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Enhancing Treatment Effect Prediction on Privacy-Protected Data: An Honest Post-Processing Approach

      By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza
      As firms increasingly rely on customer data for personalization, concerns over privacy and regulatory compliance have grown. Local Differential Privacy (LDP) offers strong individual-level protection by injecting noise into data before collection. While... View Details
      Keywords: Targeted Intervention; Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation; Differential Privacy; Honest Estimation; Post-processing; Analytics and Data Science; Consumer Behavior; Marketing
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      Huang, Ta-Wei, and Eva Ascarza. "Enhancing Treatment Effect Prediction on Privacy-Protected Data: An Honest Post-Processing Approach." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-034, December 2023. (Revised March 2025.)
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      The Buy-In Effect: When Increasing Initial Effort Motivates Behavioral Follow-Through

      By: Holly Dykstra, Shibeal O'Flaherty and A.V. Whillans
      Behavioral interventions often focus on reducing friction to encourage behavior change. In contrast, we provide evidence that adding friction can promote long-term behavior change when behaviors involve repeated costly efforts over longer time horizons. In... View Details
      Keywords: Friction; Behavior; Environmental Sustainability; Transportation; Outcome or Result
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      Dykstra, Holly, Shibeal O'Flaherty, and A.V. Whillans. "The Buy-In Effect: When Increasing Initial Effort Motivates Behavioral Follow-Through." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-020, October 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      The Customer Journey as a Source of Information

      By: Nicolas Padilla, Eva Ascarza and Oded Netzer
      In the face of heightened data privacy concerns and diminishing third-party data access, firms are placing increased emphasis on first-party data (1PD) for marketing decisions. However, in environments with infrequent purchases, reliance on past purchases 1PD... View Details
      Keywords: Customer Journey; Privacy; Consumer Behavior; Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning; Customer Focus and Relationships
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      Padilla, Nicolas, Eva Ascarza, and Oded Netzer. "The Customer Journey as a Source of Information." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-035, October 2023. (Revised October 2023.)
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Global Harms, Local Profits: How the Uneven Costs of Natural Disasters Affect Support for Green Political Platforms

      By: Silvia Pianta and Paula Rettl
      Large-scale fires are becoming increasingly common due to climate change. While conventional wisdom suggests that firsthand experiences with natural disasters foster green coalitions by raising awareness of environmental degradation, we propose an alternative... View Details
      Keywords: Climate Impact; Politics; Environmental Issues; Environmental Protection; Economic Analysis; Economic Behavior; Economic Geography; Economy; Economics; Climate Change; Environmental Management; Political Elections; Natural Disasters; Green Technology; Environmental Sustainability; Latin America; Brazil
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      Pianta, Silvia, and Paula Rettl. "Global Harms, Local Profits: How the Uneven Costs of Natural Disasters Affect Support for Green Political Platforms." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-023, September 2023. (Revised January 2025.)
      • 2023
      • Chapter

      Inflation and Misallocation in New Keynesian Models

      By: Alberto Cavallo, Francesco Lippi and Ken Miyahara
      The New Keynesian framework implies that sluggish price adjustment results in a distorted allocation of resources. We use a simple model to quantify these unobservable distortions, using data that depict the price-setting behavior of firms, specifically the frequency... View Details
      Keywords: Macroeconomics; Inflation and Deflation; Price; Analytics and Data Science; Cost
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      Cavallo, Alberto, Francesco Lippi, and Ken Miyahara. "Inflation and Misallocation in New Keynesian Models." In ECB Forum on Central Banking 26-28 June 2023, Sintra, Portugal: Macroeconomic Stabilisation in a Volatile Inflation Environment. European Central Bank, 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Design-Based Confidence Sequences: A General Approach to Risk Mitigation in Online Experimentation

      By: Dae Woong Ham, Michael Lindon, Martin Tingley and Iavor Bojinov
      Randomized experiments have become the standard method for companies to evaluate the performance of new products or services. In addition to augmenting managers’ decision-making, experimentation mitigates risk by limiting the proportion of customers exposed to... View Details
      Keywords: Performance Evaluation; Research and Development; Analytics and Data Science; Consumer Behavior
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      Ham, Dae Woong, Michael Lindon, Martin Tingley, and Iavor Bojinov. "Design-Based Confidence Sequences: A General Approach to Risk Mitigation in Online Experimentation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-070, May 2023.
      • April 3, 2023
      • Article

      Getting a Clearer View of Your Company’s Carbon Footprint

      By: Robert S. Kaplan, Karthik Ramanna and Stefan Reichelstein
      E-liability accounting is a new technique that will help customers factor in a product’s environmental footprint into their purchasing decisions and will help create a competition dynamic that leads to reduced carbon outputs. This article describes two pilot studies—by... View Details
      Keywords: Environmental Sustainability; Environmental Accounting; Supply Chain; Consumer Behavior
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      Kaplan, Robert S., Karthik Ramanna, and Stefan Reichelstein. "Getting a Clearer View of Your Company’s Carbon Footprint." Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (April 3, 2023).
      • March–April 2023
      • Article

      Market Segmentation Trees

      By: Ali Aouad, Adam Elmachtoub, Kris J. Ferreira and Ryan McNellis
      Problem definition: We seek to provide an interpretable framework for segmenting users in a population for personalized decision making. Methodology/results: We propose a general methodology, market segmentation trees (MSTs), for learning market... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Trees; Computational Advertising; Market Segmentation; Analytics and Data Science; E-commerce; Consumer Behavior; Marketplace Matching; Marketing Channels; Digital Marketing
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      Aouad, Ali, Adam Elmachtoub, Kris J. Ferreira, and Ryan McNellis. "Market Segmentation Trees." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 25, no. 2 (March–April 2023): 648–667.
      • 2023
      • Article

      Evaluating Explainability for Graph Neural Networks

      By: Chirag Agarwal, Owen Queen, Himabindu Lakkaraju and Marinka Zitnik
      As explanations are increasingly used to understand the behavior of graph neural networks (GNNs), evaluating the quality and reliability of GNN explanations is crucial. However, assessing the quality of GNN explanations is challenging as existing graph datasets have no... View Details
      Keywords: Analytics and Data Science
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      Agarwal, Chirag, Owen Queen, Himabindu Lakkaraju, and Marinka Zitnik. "Evaluating Explainability for Graph Neural Networks." Art. 114. Scientific Data 10 (2023).
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The Limits of Decentralized Administrative Data Collection: Experimental Evidence from Colombia

      By: Natalia Garbiras-Diaz and Tara Slough
      States collect vast amounts of data for use in policymaking and public administration. To do so, central governments frequently solicit data from decentralized bureaucrats. Because central governments use these data in policymaking, decentralized bureaucrats may face... View Details
      Keywords: Decentralization; Policy-making; Policy/economics; Policy Evaluation; Governance; Government Administration; Government and Politics; Government Legislation; Policy; Public Opinion; Analytics and Data Science; Latin America; South America; Colombia
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      Garbiras-Diaz, Natalia, and Tara Slough. "The Limits of Decentralized Administrative Data Collection: Experimental Evidence from Colombia." Working Paper, December 2022.
      • December 2022
      • Article

      The Rise of People Analytics and the Future of Organizational Research

      By: Jeff Polzer
      Organizations are transforming as they adopt new technologies and use new sources of data, changing the experiences of employees and pushing organizational researchers to respond. As employees perform their daily activities, they generate vast digital data. These data,... View Details
      Keywords: Organizational Change and Adaptation; Analytics and Data Science; Technology Adoption; Employees
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      Polzer, Jeff. "The Rise of People Analytics and the Future of Organizational Research." Art. 100181. Research in Organizational Behavior 42 (December 2022). (Supplement.)
      • 2022
      • Book

      Purpose + Profit: How Business Can Lift Up the World

      By: George Serafeim
      The roadmap and best practices to reap the enormous value that can emerge when your business prioritizes social and environmental goals—such as climate change, diversity and inclusion, and sustainability—right alongside the pursuit of profit.

      We not only... View Details
      Keywords: ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Performance; Profitability; Business And Society; Organizations; Mission and Purpose; Goals and Objectives; Social Issues; Environmental Sustainability; Value Creation; Organizational Change and Adaptation
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      Serafeim, George. Purpose + Profit: How Business Can Lift Up the World. New York: HarperCollins Leadership, 2022.
      • 2022
      • Article

      How to Choose a Default

      By: John Beshears, Richard T. Mason and Shlomo Benartzi
      We have developed a model for setting a default when a population is choosing among ordered choices—that is, ones listed in ascending or descending order. A company, for instance, might want to set a default contribution rate that will increase employees’ average... View Details
      Keywords: Nudge; Choice Architecture; Behavioral Economics; Behavioral Science; Default; Savings; Decision Choices and Conditions; Behavior; Motivation and Incentives
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      Beshears, John, Richard T. Mason, and Shlomo Benartzi. "How to Choose a Default." Behavioral Science & Policy 8, no. 1 (2022): 1–15.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Small Campaign Donors

      By: Laurent Bouton, Julia Cagé, Edgard Dewitte and Vincent Pons
      In this paper, we study the characteristics and behavior of small donors, and compare them to those of large donors. We first build a novel dataset including all the 340 million individual contributions reported to the U.S. Federal Election Commission between 2005 and... View Details
      Keywords: Campaign Finance; Campaign Contributions; Small Donations; ActBlue; WinRed; TV Advertising; Political Elections; Finance; Demographics; Advertising; Analysis; Analytics and Data Science
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      Bouton, Laurent, Julia Cagé, Edgard Dewitte, and Vincent Pons. "Small Campaign Donors." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30050, May 2022.
      • 2022
      • Book

      Decision Leadership: Empowering Others to Make Better Choices

      By: Don A. Moore and Max H. Bazerman
      When we think of leaders, we often imagine lone, inspirational figures lauded for their behaviors, attributes, and personal decisions, and leadership books often reinforce that view. However, this approach ignores a leader’s mission to empower others. Applying decades... View Details
      Keywords: Empowerment Leadership; Leadership; Employees; Decision Making; Management Style
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      Moore, Don A., and Max H. Bazerman. Decision Leadership: Empowering Others to Make Better Choices. New Haven: Yale University Press, 2022.
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