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Publications

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  • All HBS Web  (34)
    • Faculty Publications  (9)

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    • All HBS Web  (34)
      • Faculty Publications  (9)

      Bayesian Estimation Remove Bayesian Estimation →

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      Bayesian Estimation & Black-Litterman
      Designing Freemium: A Model of Consumer Usage, Upgrade, and Referral Dynamics
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      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Estimating Causal Effects in the Presence of Partial Interference Using Multivariate Bayesian Structural Time Series Models

      By: Fiammetta Menchetti and Iavor Bojinov
      Researchers regularly use synthetic control methods for estimating causal effects when a sub-set of units receive a single persistent treatment, and the rest are unaffected by the change. In many applications, however, units not assigned to treatment are nevertheless...  View Details
      Keywords: Causal Inference; Partial Interference; Synthetic Controls; Bayesian Structural Time Series; Mathematical Methods
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      Menchetti, Fiammetta, and Iavor Bojinov. "Estimating Causal Effects in the Presence of Partial Interference Using Multivariate Bayesian Structural Time Series Models." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-048, October 2020.
      • August 2017
      • Article

      Incentives versus Reciprocity: Insights from a Field Experiment

      By: Doug J. Chung and Das Narayandas
      We conduct a field experiment in which we vary the sales force compensation scheme at an Asian enterprise that sells consumer durable goods. With variation generated by the experimental treatments, we model sales force performance to identify the effectiveness of...  View Details
      Keywords: Sales Force Compensation; Field Experiment; Heterogeneity; Loss Aversion; Reciprocity; Salesforce Management; Compensation and Benefits
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      Chung, Doug J., and Das Narayandas. "Incentives versus Reciprocity: Insights from a Field Experiment." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 54, no. 4 (August 2017): 511–524. (Lead article.)
      • 2015
      • Working Paper

      Incentives versus Reciprocity: Insights from a Field Experiment

      By: Doug J. Chung and Das Narayandas
      We conduct a field experiment in which we vary the sales force compensation scheme at an Asian enterprise that sells consumer durable goods. With variation generated by the experimental treatments, we model sales force performance to identify the effectiveness of...  View Details
      Keywords: Sales Force Compensation; Field Experiment; Heterogeneity; Loss Aversion; Reciprocity; Motivation and Incentives; Salesforce Management; Compensation and Benefits
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      Chung, Doug J., and Das Narayandas. "Incentives versus Reciprocity: Insights from a Field Experiment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 15-084, April 2015. (Revised November 2015.)
      • 2013
      • Dissertation

      Designing Freemium: A Model of Consumer Usage, Upgrade, and Referral Dynamics

      By: Clarence Lee, Vineet Kumar and Sunil Gupta
      Abstract. Over the past decade "freemium" (free + premium) has become the dominant business model among internet start-ups for its ability to acquire and monetize a large install-base with limited marketing resources. Freemium is a hybrid strategy where a firm offers...  View Details
      Keywords: Discrete-continuous Choice Dynamic Structural Models; Bayesian Estimation; Word-of-mouth; Digital Services; Freemium; Entrepreneurship; Business Model; Motivation and Incentives; Marketing Strategy; Internet; Consumer Behavior; Marketing Reference Programs; Business Startups
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      Lee, Clarence, Vineet Kumar, and Sunil Gupta. "Designing Freemium: A Model of Consumer Usage, Upgrade, and Referral Dynamics." Diss., Harvard Business School, 2013. (Job Market Paper.)
      • May 2011
      • Article

      Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

      By: Eric J. Van den Steen
      This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one...  View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Acquisition; Risk Management; Prejudice and Bias
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      Van den Steen, Eric J. "Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents." Management Science 57, no. 5 (May 2011): 884–896.
      • 2010
      • Working Paper

      Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

      By: Eric Van den Steen
      This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one...  View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics; Game Theory; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Van den Steen, Eric. "Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-049, November 2010.
      • 2009
      • Working Paper

      Do Friends Influence Purchases in a Social Network?

      By: Raghuram Iyengar, Sangman Han and Sunil Gupta

      Social networks, such as Facebook and Myspace have witnessed a rapid growth in their membership. Some of these businesses have tried an advertising-based model with very limited success. However, these businesses have not fully explored the power of their members to...  View Details

      Keywords: Marketing; Network Effects; Sales; Power and Influence; Social and Collaborative Networks; Web Sites; South Korea
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      Iyengar, Raghuram, Sangman Han, and Sunil Gupta. "Do Friends Influence Purchases in a Social Network?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 09-123, April 2009.
      • November 2007
      • Background Note

      Bayesian Estimation & Black-Litterman

      By: Joshua D. Coval and Erik Stafford
      Describes a practical method for asset allocation that is more robust to estimation errors than the traditional implementation of mean-variance optimization with sample means and covariances. The Bayesian inspired Black-Litterman model is described after introducing...  View Details
      Keywords: Asset Management; Investment Portfolio; Mathematical Methods
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      Coval, Joshua D., and Erik Stafford. "Bayesian Estimation & Black-Litterman." Harvard Business School Background Note 208-085, November 2007.
      • Teaching Interest

      Marketing Models Doctoral Seminar

      By: Doug J. Chung

      This course is a doctoral level course on Quantitative Marketing. We will cover methodological as well as substantive topics this semester. Methodological topics include: Choice models, Entry and Exit models, Dynamic structural models, Bayesian estimation methods...  View Details

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      Bayesian Estimation & Black-Litterman
      Designing Freemium: A Model of Consumer Usage, Upgrade, and Referral Dynamics
      → Search All HBS Web
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