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Publications

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  • All HBS Web  (37)
    • Faculty Publications  (14)

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    • All HBS Web  (37)
      • Faculty Publications  (14)

      Bayesian Estimation Remove Bayesian Estimation →

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      • March 2022
      • Article

      Estimating the Effectiveness of Permanent Price Reductions for Competing Products Using Multivariate Bayesian Structural Time Series Models

      By: Fiammetta Menchetti and Iavor Bojinov
      Researchers regularly use synthetic control methods for estimating causal effects when a sub-set of units receive a single persistent treatment, and the rest are unaffected by the change. In many applications, however, units not assigned to treatment are nevertheless...  View Details
      Keywords: Causal Inference; Partial Interference; Synthetic Controls; Bayesian Structural Time Series; Mathematical Methods
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      Menchetti, Fiammetta, and Iavor Bojinov. "Estimating the Effectiveness of Permanent Price Reductions for Competing Products Using Multivariate Bayesian Structural Time Series Models." Annals of Applied Statistics 16, no. 1 (March 2022): 414–435.
      • Article

      Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modeling Uncertainty in Explainability

      By: Dylan Slack, Sophie Hilgard, Sameer Singh and Himabindu Lakkaraju
      As black box explanations are increasingly being employed to establish model credibility in high stakes settings, it is important to ensure that these explanations are accurate and reliable. However, prior work demonstrates that explanations generated by...  View Details
      Keywords: Black Box Explanations; Bayesian Modeling; Decision Making; Risk and Uncertainty; Information Technology
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      Slack, Dylan, Sophie Hilgard, Sameer Singh, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modeling Uncertainty in Explainability." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) 34 (2021).
      • August 2021
      • Article

      Multiple Imputation Using Gaussian Copulas

      By: F.M. Hollenbach, I. Bojinov, S. Minhas, N.W. Metternich, M.D. Ward and A. Volfovsky
      Missing observations are pervasive throughout empirical research, especially in the social sciences. Despite multiple approaches to dealing adequately with missing data, many scholars still fail to address this vital issue. In this paper, we present a simple-to-use...  View Details
      Keywords: Missing Data; Bayesian Statistics; Imputation; Categorical Data; Estimation
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      Hollenbach, F.M., I. Bojinov, S. Minhas, N.W. Metternich, M.D. Ward, and A. Volfovsky. "Multiple Imputation Using Gaussian Copulas." Special Issue on New Quantitative Approaches to Studying Social Inequality. Sociological Methods & Research 50, no. 3 (August 2021): 1259–1283. (0049124118799381.)
      • March 2021
      • Article

      Bayesian Signatures of Confidence and Central Tendency in Perceptual Judgment

      By: Yang Xiang, Thomas Graeber, Benjamin Enke and Samuel Gershman
      This paper theoretically and empirically investigates the role of Bayesian noisy cognition in perceptual judgment, focusing on the central tendency effect: the well-known empirical regularity that perceptual judgments are biased towards the center of the...  View Details
      Keywords: Visual Perception; Bayesian Modeling; Perception; Judgments
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      Xiang, Yang, Thomas Graeber, Benjamin Enke, and Samuel Gershman. "Bayesian Signatures of Confidence and Central Tendency in Perceptual Judgment." Attention, Perception, & Psychophysics (March 2021): 1–11.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Detecting Routines in Ride-sharing: Implications for Customer Management

      By: Ryan Dew, Eva Ascarza, Oded Netzer and Nachum Sicherman
      Routines shape many aspects of day-to-day consumption. While prior work has established the importance of habits in consumer behavior, little work has been done to understand the implications of routines—which we define as repeated behaviors with recurring, temporal...  View Details
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      Dew, Ryan, Eva Ascarza, Oded Netzer, and Nachum Sicherman. "Detecting Routines in Ride-sharing: Implications for Customer Management." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-060, March 2023.
      • June 2018
      • Article

      Personal and Social Usage: The Origins of Active Customers and Ways to Keep Them Engaged

      By: Clarence Lee, Elie Ofek and Thomas Steenburgh
      We study how digital service firms can develop an active customer base, focusing on two questions. First, how does the way that customers use the service postadoption to meet their own needs (personal usage) and to interact with one another (social usage) vary across...  View Details
      Keywords: Customer Engagement; Adoption Routes; Word-of-Mouth; Digital Marketing; Bayesian Estimation; Customers; Communication; Consumer Behavior; Marketing; Internet and the Web; Analytics and Data Science
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      Lee, Clarence, Elie Ofek, and Thomas Steenburgh. "Personal and Social Usage: The Origins of Active Customers and Ways to Keep Them Engaged." Management Science 64, no. 6 (June 2018): 2473–2495. (Lead Article.)
      • August 2017
      • Article

      Incentives versus Reciprocity: Insights from a Field Experiment

      By: Doug J. Chung and Das Narayandas
      We conduct a field experiment in which we vary the sales force compensation scheme at an Asian enterprise that sells consumer durable goods. With variation generated by the experimental treatments, we model sales force performance to identify the effectiveness of...  View Details
      Keywords: Sales Force Compensation; Field Experiment; Heterogeneity; Loss Aversion; Reciprocity; Salesforce Management; Compensation and Benefits
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      Chung, Doug J., and Das Narayandas. "Incentives versus Reciprocity: Insights from a Field Experiment." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 54, no. 4 (August 2017): 511–524. (Lead article.)
      • Article

      Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina

      By: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
      When forming expectations, households may be influenced by perceived bias in the information they receive. In this paper, we study how individuals learn from potentially biased statistics using data from both a natural experiment and a survey experiment during a...  View Details
      Keywords: Inflation Expectations; Bayesian Estimation; Inflation and Deflation; Information; Household; Behavior; Argentina
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      Cavallo, Alberto, Guillermo Cruces, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia. "Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring 2016): 59–108.
      • 2015
      • Working Paper

      Incentives versus Reciprocity: Insights from a Field Experiment

      By: Doug J. Chung and Das Narayandas
      We conduct a field experiment in which we vary the sales force compensation scheme at an Asian enterprise that sells consumer durable goods. With variation generated by the experimental treatments, we model sales force performance to identify the effectiveness of...  View Details
      Keywords: Sales Force Compensation; Field Experiment; Heterogeneity; Loss Aversion; Reciprocity; Motivation and Incentives; Salesforce Management; Compensation and Benefits
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      Chung, Doug J., and Das Narayandas. "Incentives versus Reciprocity: Insights from a Field Experiment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 15-084, April 2015. (Revised November 2015.)
      • 2013
      • Dissertation

      Designing Freemium: A Model of Consumer Usage, Upgrade, and Referral Dynamics

      By: Clarence Lee, Vineet Kumar and Sunil Gupta
      Abstract. Over the past decade "freemium" (free + premium) has become the dominant business model among internet start-ups for its ability to acquire and monetize a large install-base with limited marketing resources. Freemium is a hybrid strategy where a firm offers...  View Details
      Keywords: Discrete-Continuous Choice Dynamic Structural Models; Bayesian Estimation; Word-of-Mouth; Digital Services; Freemium; Entrepreneurship; Business Model; Motivation and Incentives; Marketing Strategy; Internet and the Web; Consumer Behavior; Marketing Reference Programs; Business Startups
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      Lee, Clarence, Vineet Kumar, and Sunil Gupta. "Designing Freemium: A Model of Consumer Usage, Upgrade, and Referral Dynamics." Diss., Harvard Business School, 2013. (Job Market Paper.)
      • May 2011
      • Article

      Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

      By: Eric J. Van den Steen
      This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one...  View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Acquisition; Risk Management; Prejudice and Bias
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      Van den Steen, Eric J. "Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents." Management Science 57, no. 5 (May 2011): 884–896.
      • 2010
      • Working Paper

      Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

      By: Eric Van den Steen
      This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one...  View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics; Game Theory; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Van den Steen, Eric. "Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-049, November 2010.
      • 2009
      • Working Paper

      Do Friends Influence Purchases in a Social Network?

      By: Raghuram Iyengar, Sangman Han and Sunil Gupta

      Social networks, such as Facebook and Myspace have witnessed a rapid growth in their membership. Some of these businesses have tried an advertising-based model with very limited success. However, these businesses have not fully explored the power of their members to...  View Details

      Keywords: Marketing; Network Effects; Sales; Power and Influence; Social and Collaborative Networks; Web Sites; South Korea
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      Iyengar, Raghuram, Sangman Han, and Sunil Gupta. "Do Friends Influence Purchases in a Social Network?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 09-123, April 2009.
      • November 2007
      • Background Note

      Bayesian Estimation & Black-Litterman

      By: Joshua D. Coval and Erik Stafford
      Describes a practical method for asset allocation that is more robust to estimation errors than the traditional implementation of mean-variance optimization with sample means and covariances. The Bayesian inspired Black-Litterman model is described after introducing...  View Details
      Keywords: Asset Management; Investment Portfolio; Mathematical Methods
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      Coval, Joshua D., and Erik Stafford. "Bayesian Estimation & Black-Litterman." Harvard Business School Background Note 208-085, November 2007.
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