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- 2023
- Working Paper
An Experimental Design for Anytime-Valid Causal Inference on Multi-Armed Bandits
By: Biyonka Liang and Iavor I. Bojinov
Typically, multi-armed bandit (MAB) experiments are analyzed at the end of the study and thus require the analyst to specify a fixed sample size in advance. However, in many online learning applications, it is advantageous to continuously produce inference on the...
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Liang, Biyonka, and Iavor I. Bojinov. "An Experimental Design for Anytime-Valid Causal Inference on Multi-Armed Bandits." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-057, March 2024.
- March 2024
- Article
The Asymmetric Mispricing Information in Analysts’ Target Prices
By: Jeremiah Green, John R. M. Hand and Anywhere Sikochi
We study the mispricing information present in the target prices of U.S. and international analysts. We hypothesize that asymmetry in the value-relevance of the information that managers supply to analysts, combined with asymmetry in the incentives facing analysts to...
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Keywords:
Analysts;
Target Prices;
Mispricing;
Cost Of Equity;
Valuation;
Price;
Cost;
Analysis;
Theory
Green, Jeremiah, John R. M. Hand, and Anywhere Sikochi. "The Asymmetric Mispricing Information in Analysts’ Target Prices." Review of Accounting Studies 29, no. 1 (March 2024): 889–915.
- February 2024
- Case
CLSA: Integrating ESG in Stock Valuation
By: Shirley Lu, Aaron Yoon and Billy Chan
In 2023, a senior financial analyst at the Hong Kong-based stock brokerage firm CLSA was surprised to see that, based on his calculations, the financial impact from climate risks on a major Indian cement manufacturing company’s projected earnings could be massive....
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- January 2024
- Case
BWX Technologies
By: Suraj Srinivasan, Yuan Zou and Aldo Sesia
Rex Geveden and Robb LeMasters, CEO and CFO of BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT), were concerned that investors and analysts did not fully appreciate the company's transformation from a nuclear reactor provider to the US Navy and Canadian utilities to a multi-product line...
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Keywords:
Transformation;
Communication Intention and Meaning;
Business and Shareholder Relations;
Valuation;
Diversification;
United States;
Canada
Srinivasan, Suraj, Yuan Zou, and Aldo Sesia. "BWX Technologies." Harvard Business School Case 124-071, January 2024.
- December 2023
- Article
Brokerage Relationships and Analyst Forecasts: Evidence from the Protocol for Broker Recruiting
By: Braiden Coleman, Michael Drake, Joseph Pacelli and Brady Twedt
In this study, we offer novel evidence on how the nature of brokerage-client relationships can influence the quality of equity research. We exploit a unique setting provided by the Protocol for Broker Recruiting to examine whether relaxed broker non-compete agreement...
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Keywords:
Brokers;
Analysts;
Forecasts;
Bias;
Protocol;
Investment;
Research;
Forecasting and Prediction
Coleman, Braiden, Michael Drake, Joseph Pacelli, and Brady Twedt. "Brokerage Relationships and Analyst Forecasts: Evidence from the Protocol for Broker Recruiting." Review of Accounting Studies 28, no. 4 (December 2023): 2075–2103.
- November 2023
- Article
Brokerage House Initial Public Offerings and Analyst Forecast Quality
By: Mark Bradshaw, Michael Drake, Joseph Pacelli and Brady Twedt
We examine how brokerage firm initial public offerings (IPOs) influence the research quality of sell-side analysts employed by the brokerage. Our main results focus on earnings forecast bias and absolute forecast errors as proxies for research quality. Using a...
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Keywords:
IPOs;
Research Analysts;
"Brokerage Industry;
Initial Public Offering;
Employees;
Behavior;
Outcome or Result
Bradshaw, Mark, Michael Drake, Joseph Pacelli, and Brady Twedt. "Brokerage House Initial Public Offerings and Analyst Forecast Quality." Management Science 69, no. 11 (November 2023): 7079–7094.
- August 2023
- Article
Do Rating Agencies Behave Defensively for Higher Risk Issuers?
By: Samuel B. Bonsall IV, Kevin Koharki, Pepa Kraft, Karl A. Muller III and Anywhere Sikochi
We examine whether rating agencies act defensively toward issuers with a higher likelihood of default. We find that agencies' qualitative soft rating adjustments are more accurate as issuers' default risk grows, as evidenced by the adjustments leading to lower Type I...
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Keywords:
Credit Rating Agencies;
Soft Rating Adjustments;
Default;
Credit;
Performance Evaluation;
Measurement and Metrics;
Financial Institutions;
Risk Management
Bonsall, Samuel B., IV, Kevin Koharki, Pepa Kraft, Karl A. Muller III, and Anywhere Sikochi. "Do Rating Agencies Behave Defensively for Higher Risk Issuers?" Management Science 69, no. 8 (August 2023): 4864–4887.
- July 2023 (Revised February 2024)
- Case
Equity Restructuring at Dell Technologies: Buy Out, Buy Up, Buy In (A)
By: Stuart C. Gilson and Sarah L. Abbott
In November 2018, Dell Technologies was poised to re-enter the public markets by means of a complex recapitalization that would replace an entire class of publicly-traded “tracking stock,” with new shares that would trade publicly without the need of a formal IPO. The...
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Keywords:
Technology;
M&A;
Recapitalization;
MBO;
Equity Issues;
Private Equity Buyouts;
Public Ownership;
Stock Shares;
Mergers and Acquisitions;
Equity;
Technology Industry;
United States
Gilson, Stuart C., and Sarah L. Abbott. "Equity Restructuring at Dell Technologies: Buy Out, Buy Up, Buy In (A)." Harvard Business School Case 224-005, July 2023. (Revised February 2024.)
- June 2023
- Case
Investing in the Climate Transition at Neuberger Berman
By: George Serafeim and Benjamin Maletta
By mid-2023, Neuberger Berman (NB), an active asset manager, had grown its assets under management to about half a trillion dollars and took pride in its client centricity and innovative spirit. Responding to client demand for investment products that integrated...
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Keywords:
Carbon Emissions;
Sustainability;
Decarbonization;
Performance;
Risk Assessment;
Opportunities;
Environmental Sustainability;
Carbon Footprint;
Business Analysis;
Investing;
Regulation;
Asset Management;
Investment Strategy;
Climate Change;
Transition;
Analysis;
Product Positioning;
Strategy;
Investment Portfolio;
Financial Services Industry;
Energy Industry
- June 2023
- Case
Accounting for Loan Losses at JPMorgan Chase: Predicting Credit Costs
By: Jonas Heese, Jung Koo Kang and James Weber
The case examines the accounting for loan losses at a large bank, how a bank sets its Allowance for Loan and Lease Losses (ALLL) on its financial statements. ALLL, and the rules that set them, determine when banks would and would not extend loans, which significantly...
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Keywords:
Accounting Standards;
Accrual Accounting;
Financial Statements;
Financial Reporting;
Banks and Banking;
Financing and Loans;
Banking Industry;
United States
Heese, Jonas, Jung Koo Kang, and James Weber. "Accounting for Loan Losses at JPMorgan Chase: Predicting Credit Costs." Harvard Business School Case 123-042, June 2023.
- 2023
- Working Paper
PRIMO: Private Regression in Multiple Outcomes
By: Seth Neel
We introduce a new differentially private regression setting we call Private Regression in Multiple Outcomes (PRIMO), inspired the common situation where a data analyst wants to perform a set of l regressions while preserving privacy, where the covariates...
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Neel, Seth. "PRIMO: Private Regression in Multiple Outcomes." Working Paper, March 2023.
- April 2023
- Article
The Stock Market Valuation of Human Capital Creation
By: Ethan Rouen and Matthias Regier
We develop a measure of firm-year-specific human capital investment from publicly disclosed personnel expenses (PE) and examine the stock market valuation of this investment. Measuring the future value of PE (PEFV) based on the relation between...
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Rouen, Ethan, and Matthias Regier. "The Stock Market Valuation of Human Capital Creation." Art. 102384. Journal of Corporate Finance 79 (April 2023).
- February 2023
- Teaching Note
Bear to Bull? An Analyst’s Journey with Netflix
By: Aiyesha Dey and Joseph Pacelli
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 123-001. Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter said “hell freezing over” was more likely than him upgrading the “sell” rating he had maintained on movie and television streaming giant Netflix since 2011, despite meteoric subscriber...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
Institutional Emplacement and the Novel Resurgence of Independent Bookstores
By: Ryan Raffaelli and Ryann Noe
This study reveals how actors leverage physical place as an asset to facilitate organizational
adaptation and industry evolution. Through a longitudinal, qualitative analysis of the U.S.
independent bookselling industry from 1995 to 2019, we outline how dispersed...
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Keywords:
Industry Growth;
Small Business;
Organizational Change and Adaptation;
Business Processes;
Retail Industry;
Publishing Industry;
United States
Raffaelli, Ryan, and Ryann Noe. "Institutional Emplacement and the Novel Resurgence of Independent Bookstores." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-033, December 2022.
- October 2022
- Case
Driving Decarbonization at BMW
The case describes BMW’s electrification and decarbonization strategy, and how the company measured carbon emissions throughout the life cycle of its vehicles and used tools like carbon abatement cost curves to evaluate decarbonization opportunities. In mid-2022,...
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Keywords:
Decarbonization;
Climate Change;
Environment;
Sustainability;
Carbon Accounting;
Carbon;
Carbon Abatement;
Electric Vehicles;
Automobiles;
Transportation;
Environmental Accounting;
Environmental Management;
Environmental Sustainability;
Accounting;
Strategy;
Technological Innovation;
Supply Chain;
Business and Stakeholder Relations;
Transportation Industry;
Auto Industry;
Battery Industry;
Germany;
China;
United States;
Europe
Lu, Shirley, George Serafeim, and Michael W. Toffel. "Driving Decarbonization at BMW." Harvard Business School Case 123-008, October 2022.
- September 2022 (Revised January 2023)
- Case
Bear to Bull: An Analyst’s Journey with Netflix
By: Aiyesha Dey, Joseph Pacelli, Jennifer G. Lawson and Tom Quinn
Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter said “hell freezing over” was more likely than him upgrading the “sell” rating he had maintained on movie and television streaming giant Netflix since 2011, despite meteoric subscriber and share price growth. In 2022, however,...
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Keywords:
Accounting;
Asset Pricing;
Cash Flow;
Investment;
Stocks;
Equity;
Analysis;
Attitudes;
Financial Services Industry;
Entertainment and Recreation Industry;
United States
Dey, Aiyesha, Joseph Pacelli, Jennifer G. Lawson, and Tom Quinn. "Bear to Bull: An Analyst’s Journey with Netflix." Harvard Business School Case 123-001, September 2022. (Revised January 2023.)
- September 2022
- Article
Human Versus Machine: A Comparison of Robo-Analyst and Traditional Research Analyst Investment Recommendations
By: Braiden Coleman, Kenneth J. Merkley and Joseph Pacelli
We provide the first comprehensive analysis of the properties of investment recommendations generated by “Robo-Analysts,” which are human analyst-assisted computer programs conducting automated research analysis. Our results indicate that Robo-Analyst recommendations...
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Keywords:
Fintech;
Analysts;
Robo-analysts;
Investment Recommendations;
Investment;
Information Technology;
Performance
Coleman, Braiden, Kenneth J. Merkley, and Joseph Pacelli. "Human Versus Machine: A Comparison of Robo-Analyst and Traditional Research Analyst Investment Recommendations." Accounting Review 97, no. 5 (September 2022): 221–244.
- Article
The Value of Intermediation in the Stock Market
By: Marco Di Maggio, Mark Egan and Francesco Franzoni
We estimate a structural model of broker choice to quantitatively decompose the value that institutional investors attach to broker services. Studying over 300 million institutional equity trades, we find that investors are sensitive to both explicit and implicit...
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Keywords:
Financial Intermediation;
Institutional Investors;
Research Analysts;
Broker Networks;
Equity Trading;
Institutional Investing
Di Maggio, Marco, Mark Egan, and Francesco Franzoni. "The Value of Intermediation in the Stock Market." Journal of Financial Economics 145, no. 2A (August 2022): 208–233.
- 2022
- Working Paper
Retail Investors’ Contrarian Behavior Around News, Attention, and the Momentum Effect
By: Cheng (Patrick) Luo, Enrichetta Ravina, Marco Sammon and Luis M. Viceira
Using a large panel of U.S. brokerage accounts trades and positions, we show that a large fraction of retail investors trade as contrarians after large earnings surprises, especially for loser stocks, and that such contrarian trading contributes to post earnings...
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Keywords:
Retail Investors;
Post Earnings Announcement Drift;
Price Momentum;
Behavioral Finance;
Investment;
Demographics
Luo, Cheng (Patrick), Enrichetta Ravina, Marco Sammon, and Luis M. Viceira. "Retail Investors’ Contrarian Behavior Around News, Attention, and the Momentum Effect." Working Paper, June 2022.
- Article
Core Earnings: New Data and Evidence
By: Ethan Rouen, Eric C. So and Charles C.Y. Wang
Using a novel dataset, we show that components of firms' GAAP earnings stemming from ancillary business activities or transitory shocks are significant in frequency and magnitude. These components have grown over time and are dispersed across various sections of the...
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Keywords:
Core Earnings;
Transitory Earnings;
Non-operating Earnings;
Quantitative Disclosures;
Equity Valuation;
Big Data;
Business Earnings;
Financial Reporting;
Valuation;
Analytics and Data Science
Rouen, Ethan, Eric C. So, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Core Earnings: New Data and Evidence." Journal of Financial Economics 142, no. 3 (December 2021): 1068–1091.