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Publications

Publications

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  • All HBS Web  (218)
    • Faculty Publications  (34)

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    • All HBS Web  (218)
      • Faculty Publications  (34)

      Affective Forecasting Remove Affective Forecasting →

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      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions

      By: Caleb Kwon, Ananth Raman and Jorge Tamayo
      We empirically analyze how managerial overrides to a commercial algorithm that forecasts demand and schedules labor affect store performance. We analyze administrative data from a large grocery retailer that utilizes a commercial algorithm to forecast demand and...  View Details
      Keywords: Employees; Human Capital; Performance; Applications and Software; Management Skills; Management Practices and Processes; Retail Industry
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      Kwon, Caleb, Ananth Raman, and Jorge Tamayo. "Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions." Working Paper, December 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Perceptions about Monetary Policy

      By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam
      We estimate perceptions about the Fed's monetary policy rule from micro data on professional forecasters. The perceived rule varies significantly over time, with important consequences for monetary policy and bond markets. Over the monetary policy cycle, easings are...  View Details
      Keywords: Monetary Policy; Central Banking; Forecasting and Prediction; Policy; Interest Rates
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      Bauer, Michael D., Carolin Pflueger, and Adi Sunderam. "Perceptions about Monetary Policy." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30480, September 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The Effect of Employee Lateness and Absenteeism on Store Performance

      By: Caleb Kwon and Ananth Raman
      We empirically analyze the effects of employee lateness and absenteeism on store performance by examining 25.5 million employee shift timecards covering more than 100,000 employees across more than 500 U.S. retail grocery store locations over a four year time period....  View Details
      Keywords: Absenteeism; Lateness; Scheduling; Performance Productivity; Employees; Retail Industry
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      Kwon, Caleb, and Ananth Raman. "The Effect of Employee Lateness and Absenteeism on Store Performance." Working Paper, August 2022.
      • December 2021
      • Article

      Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight

      By: Aticus Peterson and Andy Wu
      We study how learning by experience across projects affects an entrepreneur's strategic foresight. In a quantitative study of 314 entrepreneurs across 722 crowdfunded projects supplemented with a program of qualitative interviews, we counterintuitively find that...  View Details
      Keywords: Crowdfunding; Experience; Prediction; Timeline; Complexity; Entrepreneurship; Learning; Experience and Expertise; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Peterson, Aticus, and Andy Wu. "Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight." Art. 1. Strategic Management Journal 42, no. 13 (December 2021): 2357–2388. (Lead article.)
      • January–February 2021
      • Article

      Cross‐firm Return Predictability and Accounting Quality

      By: Wen Chen, Mozaffar Khan, Leonid Kogan and George Serafeim
      We test the hypothesis that if poor accounting quality (AQ) is associated with poor investor understanding of firms’ revenue and cost structures, then poor AQ stocks likely respond more slowly than good AQ stocks to new non‐idiosyncratic information that affects both...  View Details
      Keywords: Accounting Quality; Earnings Quality; Stock Returns; Investment Strategy; Accounting; Business Earnings; Quality; Investment Return; Investment; Strategy
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      Chen, Wen, Mozaffar Khan, Leonid Kogan, and George Serafeim. "Cross‐firm Return Predictability and Accounting Quality." Journal of Business Finance & Accounting 48, nos. 1-2 (January–February 2021): 70–101.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight

      By: Aticus Peterson and Andy Wu
      We study how learning by experience across projects affects an entrepreneur's strategic foresight. In a quantitative study of 314 entrepreneurs across 722 crowdfunded projects supplemented with a program of qualitative interviews, we counterintuitively find that...  View Details
      Keywords: Experience; Interdependency; Strategic Foresight; Crowdfunding; Timeline; Delay; Forecasting; Entrepreneurship; Learning; Complexity; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Development; Planning
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      Peterson, Aticus, and Andy Wu. "Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-123, January 2021. (Revised May 2021.)
      • January 2021
      • Case

      The FIRE Savings Calculator

      By: Michael Parzen and Paul Hamilton
      This case follows Carol Muñoz, a member of the Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE) lifestyle movement. At the age of 45, Carol is considering retiring and living off the $1 million she has accumulated. Using Monte Carlo simulation, Carol forecasts the...  View Details
      Keywords: Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Strategy; Investment Portfolio; Investment Return; Personal Finance; Saving; Risk and Uncertainty; Diversification; Theory; Personal Development and Career; Financial Services Industry
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      Parzen, Michael, and Paul Hamilton. "The FIRE Savings Calculator." Harvard Business School Case 621-087, January 2021.
      • Article

      Towards Robust and Reliable Algorithmic Recourse

      By: Sohini Upadhyay, Shalmali Joshi and Himabindu Lakkaraju
      As predictive models are increasingly being deployed in high-stakes decision making (e.g., loan approvals), there has been growing interest in post-hoc techniques which provide recourse to affected individuals. These techniques generate recourses under the assumption...  View Details
      Keywords: Machine Learning Models; Algorithmic Recourse; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Upadhyay, Sohini, Shalmali Joshi, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Towards Robust and Reliable Algorithmic Recourse." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) 34 (2021).
      • Article

      Cultural Diversity on Wall Street: Evidence from Consensus Earnings Forecasts

      By: Kenneth Merkley, Roni Michaely and Joseph Pacelli
      We examine how cultural differences among agents influence the aggregate outcome of a common forecasting task. Using both exogenous shocks to sell-side analyst diversity and panel regression methods, we find that increases in analyst cultural diversity positively...  View Details
      Keywords: Culture; Forecasting; Sell-side Analysts; Information Aggregation; Diversity; Forecasting and Prediction; Information; Performance Improvement
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      Merkley, Kenneth, Roni Michaely, and Joseph Pacelli. "Cultural Diversity on Wall Street: Evidence from Consensus Earnings Forecasts." Journal of Accounting & Economics 70, no. 1 (August 2020).
      • June 2020 (Revised February 2021)
      • Case

      Accounting for Leases at American Airlines (A)

      By: Jonas Heese, Gerardo Pérez Cavazos and Julia Kelley
      In March 2020, as coronavirus reduced demand for air travel, an analyst was forecasting American Airlines’ (American’s) first quarter financial results. To develop a forecast, she needed to familiarize herself with Accounting Standards Update (ASU) 2016-02, “Leases...  View Details
      Keywords: Accounting; Financial Reporting; Financial Statements; Finance; Governance; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Governance; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Governing and Advisory Boards; Leasing; Accounting Industry; Air Transportation Industry; North and Central America; United States
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      Heese, Jonas, Gerardo Pérez Cavazos, and Julia Kelley. "Accounting for Leases at American Airlines (A)." Harvard Business School Case 120-069, June 2020. (Revised February 2021.)
      • 2019
      • Working Paper

      Reflexivity in Credit Markets

      By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Lawrence J. Jin
      Reflexivity is the idea that investors' biased beliefs affect market outcomes, and that market outcomes in turn affect investors' beliefs. We develop a behavioral model of the credit cycle featuring such a two-way feedback loop. In our model, investors form beliefs...  View Details
      Keywords: Reflexivity; Attitudes; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Credit
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      Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, and Lawrence J. Jin. "Reflexivity in Credit Markets." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 25747, April 2019.
      • May 2018 (Revised October 2019)
      • Case

      Managing the Future of Work

      By: William R. Kerr, Allison Ciechanover and Jeff Huizinga
      By 2019, leaders from the public and private sector had become increasingly anxious about how advanced technologies and aging global populations could affect labor markets, workplaces, and workers’ lives. Some analysts forecasted that hundreds of millions of workers...  View Details
      Keywords: Labor Markets; Workplace; Employment; Technological Innovation; Demographics; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Change Management; Problems and Challenges; Opportunities
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      Kerr, William R., Allison Ciechanover, and Jeff Huizinga. "Managing the Future of Work." Harvard Business School Case 818-128, May 2018. (Revised October 2019.)
      • September 2017
      • Article

      The Belief in a Favorable Future

      By: Todd Rogers, Don A. Moore and Michael I. Norton
      People believe that future others’ preferences and beliefs will change to align with their own. People holding a particular view (e.g., support of President Trump) are more likely to believe that future others will share their view than to believe that future others...  View Details
      Keywords: Social Cognition; Judgment; Prediction; Forecasting; False Consensus; Donation; Open Data; Open Materials; Preregistered; Forecasting and Prediction; Perception; Values and Beliefs; Behavior
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      Rogers, Todd, Don A. Moore, and Michael I. Norton. "The Belief in a Favorable Future." Psychological Science 28, no. 9 (September 2017): 1290–1301.
      • Article

      Dying Is Unexpectedly Positive

      By: Amelia Goranson, Ryan S. Ritter, Adam Waytz, Michael I. Norton and Kurt Gray
      In people’s imagination, dying seems dreadful; however, these perceptions may not reflect reality. In two studies, we compared the affective experience of people facing imminent death with that of people imagining imminent death. Study 1 revealed that blog posts of...  View Details
      Keywords: Death; Language; LIWC; Positivity; Affective Forecasting; Open Materials; Perspective; Attitudes
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      Goranson, Amelia, Ryan S. Ritter, Adam Waytz, Michael I. Norton, and Kurt Gray. "Dying Is Unexpectedly Positive." Psychological Science 28, no. 7 (July 2017): 988–999.
      • November 2015
      • Article

      When Doing Good Is Bad in Gift-giving: Mis-predicting Appreciation of Socially Responsible Gifts

      By: Lisa A. Cavanaugh, F. Gino and Gavan J. Fitzsimons
      Gifts that support a worthy cause (i.e., "gifts that give twice"), such as a charitable donation in the recipient's name, have become increasingly popular. Recipients generally enjoy these gifts, which not only benefit others in need but also make recipients feel good...  View Details
      Keywords: Perception; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving
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      Cavanaugh, Lisa A., F. Gino, and Gavan J. Fitzsimons. "When Doing Good Is Bad in Gift-giving: Mis-predicting Appreciation of Socially Responsible Gifts." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 131 (November 2015): 178–189.
      • Article

      Getting the Most Out of Giving: Concretely Framing a Prosocial Goal Maximizes Happiness

      By: Melanie Rudd, Jennifer Aaker and Michael I. Norton
      Across six field and laboratory experiments, participants assigned a more concretely-framed prosocial goal (e.g., making someone smile or increasing recycling) felt happier and reported creating greater personal happiness after performing a goal-directed act of...  View Details
      Keywords: Prosocial Behavior; Goal Framing; Affective Forecasting; Goals and Objectives; Happiness; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving
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      Rudd, Melanie, Jennifer Aaker, and Michael I. Norton. "Getting the Most Out of Giving: Concretely Framing a Prosocial Goal Maximizes Happiness." Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 54 (September 2014): 11–24.
      • June 2013
      • Article

      Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns

      By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson
      We show that the credit quality of corporate debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the...  View Details
      Keywords: Quality; Bonds; Forecasting and Prediction; Credit
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      Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel G. Hanson. "Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns." Review of Financial Studies 26, no. 6 (June 2013): 1483–1525. (Internet Appendix Here.)
      • March–April 2013
      • Article

      Vaporware, Suddenware and Trueware: New Product Preannouncements under Market Uncertainty

      By: Elie Ofek and Ozge Turut
      A firm may want to preannounce its plans to develop a new product in order to stimulate future demand. But given that such communications can affect rivals' incentives to develop the same new product, a firm may decide to preannounce untruthfully in order to deter...  View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Announcements; Competition; Product Launch; Product Development
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      Ofek, Elie, and Ozge Turut. "Vaporware, Suddenware and Trueware: New Product Preannouncements under Market Uncertainty." Marketing Science 32, no. 2 (March–April 2013): 342–355.
      • Fall 2012
      • Article

      Innovation Strategy and Entry Deterrence

      By: Ozge Turut and Elie Ofek
      We model an incumbent's decision to pursue radical or incremental innovation when facing a rival entrant. The radical innovation may yield lucrative financial returns but entails significant technological and market-related uncertainties. It is also particularly...  View Details
      Keywords: Competition; Innovation Strategy; Risk and Uncertainty; Markets; Mathematical Methods
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      Turut, Ozge, and Elie Ofek. "Innovation Strategy and Entry Deterrence." Journal of Economics & Management Strategy 12, no. 3 (Fall 2012).
      • June 2012
      • Article

      Consequence-Cause Matching: Looking to the Consequences of Events to Infer Their Causes

      By: Robyn A. LeBoeuf and Michael I. Norton
      We show that people non-normatively infer event causes from event consequences. For example, people inferred that a product failure (computer crash) had a large cause (widespread computer virus) if it had a large consequence (job loss), but that the identical failure...  View Details
      Keywords: Causal Inference; Product; Forecasting and Prediction; Motivation and Incentives; Failure
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      LeBoeuf, Robyn A., and Michael I. Norton. "Consequence-Cause Matching: Looking to the Consequences of Events to Infer Their Causes." Journal of Consumer Research 39, no. 1 (June 2012): 128–141.
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