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All HBS Web
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- Faculty Publications (8)
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- 2022
- Working Paper
Confidence, Self-Selection and Bias in the Aggregate
By: Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea
The influence of behavioral biases on aggregate outcomes like prices and allocations depends in part on self-selection: whether rational people opt more strongly into aggregate interactions than biased individuals. We conduct a series of betting market, auction and...
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Enke, Benjamin, Thomas Graeber, and Ryan Oprea. "Confidence, Self-Selection and Bias in the Aggregate." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30262, July 2022.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Cognitive Uncertainty in Intertemporal Choice
By: Benjamin Enke and Thomas Graeber
This paper studies the relevance of cognitive uncertainty – subjective uncertainty over one's utility-maximizing action – for understanding and predicting intertemporal choice. The main idea is that when people are cognitively noisy, such as when a decision is complex,...
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Keywords:
Cognitive Uncertainty;
Intertemporal Choice;
Cognition and Thinking;
Complexity;
Decision Choices and Conditions
Enke, Benjamin, and Thomas Graeber. "Cognitive Uncertainty in Intertemporal Choice." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 19577, December 2021. (R&R at The Quarterly Journal of Economics.)
- Article
Measuring the Scientific Effectiveness of Contact Tracing: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
By: Thiemo Fetzer and Thomas Graeber
Contact tracing has for decades been a cornerstone of the public health approach to epidemics, including Ebola, severe acute respiratory syndrome, and now COVID-19. It has not yet been possible, however, to causally assess the method’s effectiveness using a randomized...
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Fetzer, Thiemo, and Thomas Graeber. "Measuring the Scientific Effectiveness of Contact Tracing: Evidence from a Natural Experiment." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118, no. 33 (August 17, 2021): 1–4.
- March 2021
- Article
Bayesian Signatures of Confidence and Central Tendency in Perceptual Judgment
By: Yang Xiang, Thomas Graeber, Benjamin Enke and Samuel Gershman
This paper theoretically and empirically investigates the role of Bayesian noisy cognition in perceptual judgment, focusing on the central tendency effect: the well-known empirical regularity that perceptual judgments are biased towards the center of the...
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Xiang, Yang, Thomas Graeber, Benjamin Enke, and Samuel Gershman. "Bayesian Signatures of Confidence and Central Tendency in Perceptual Judgment." Attention, Perception, & Psychophysics (March 2021): 1–11.
- 2022
- Working Paper
Inattentive Inference
By: Thomas Graeber
This paper studies how people infer a state of the world from information structures that include additional, payoff-irrelevant states. For example, learning someone’s effort from their observable performance may require accounting for the otherwise irrelevant role of...
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Keywords:
Belief Formation;
Attention;
Bounded Rationality;
Values and Beliefs;
Information;
Mathematical Methods
Graeber, Thomas. "Inattentive Inference." Working Paper, January 2022. (R&R at Journal of the European Economic Association.)
- 2021
- Working Paper
Intertemporal Altruism
By: Thomas Graeber, Felix Chopra, Philipp Eisenhauer and Armin Falk
Standard consumption utility is linked in time to a consumption event, whereas the timing of prosocial utility flows is ambiguous. Prosocial utility may depend on the actual utility consequences for others – it is consequence-dated – or it may be related to the act of...
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Graeber, Thomas, Felix Chopra, Philipp Eisenhauer, and Armin Falk. "Intertemporal Altruism." Working Paper, September 2021. (R&R at American Economic Journal Microeconomics.)
- 2020
- Working Paper
Heterogeneity of Gain-Loss Attitudes and Expectations-Based Reference Points
By: Lorenz Goette, Thomas Graeber, Alex Kellogg and Charles Sprenger
We examine the role of heterogeneity in gain-loss attitudes for identifying the leading behavioral model of expectations-based reference dependence (Kőszegi and Rabin, 2006, 2007) (KR). Failure to account for recently-documented heterogeneity in gain-loss attitudes is...
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Keywords:
Reference-dependent Preferences;
Rational Expectations;
Personal Equilibrium;
Endowment Effect;
Expectations-based Reference Points
Goette, Lorenz, Thomas Graeber, Alex Kellogg, and Charles Sprenger. "Heterogeneity of Gain-Loss Attitudes and Expectations-Based Reference Points." Working Paper, October 2020.
- March 24, 2020
- Article
Delayed Negative Effects of Prosocial Spending on Happiness
By: Armin Falk and Thomas Graeber
Does prosocial behavior promote happiness? We test this longstanding hypothesis in a behavioral experiment that extends the scope of previous research. In our Saving a Life paradigm, every participant either saved one human life in expectation by triggering a targeted...
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Falk, Armin, and Thomas Graeber. "Delayed Negative Effects of Prosocial Spending on Happiness." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117, no. 12 (March 24, 2020): 6463–6468.