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Graeber, Thomas W. Remove Graeber, Thomas W. →

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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Confidence, Self-Selection and Bias in the Aggregate
By: Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea
The influence of behavioral biases on aggregate outcomes like prices and allocations depends in part on self-selection: whether rational people opt more strongly into aggregate interactions than biased individuals. We conduct a series of betting market, auction and...  View Details
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  • 2021
  • Working Paper

Cognitive Uncertainty in Intertemporal Choice
By: Benjamin Enke and Thomas Graeber
This paper studies the relevance of cognitive uncertainty – subjective uncertainty over one's utility-maximizing action – for understanding and predicting intertemporal choice. The main idea is that when people are cognitively noisy, such as when a decision is complex,...  View Details
Keywords: Cognitive Uncertainty; Intertemporal Choice; Cognition and Thinking; Complexity; Decision Choices and Conditions
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  • Article

Measuring the Scientific Effectiveness of Contact Tracing: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
By: Thiemo Fetzer and Thomas Graeber
Contact tracing has for decades been a cornerstone of the public health approach to epidemics, including Ebola, severe acute respiratory syndrome, and now COVID-19. It has not yet been possible, however, to causally assess the method’s effectiveness using a randomized...  View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Contact Tracing; Public Health; Infectious Diseases; Health Pandemics
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  • March 2021
  • Article

Bayesian Signatures of Confidence and Central Tendency in Perceptual Judgment
By: Yang Xiang, Thomas Graeber, Benjamin Enke and Samuel Gershman
This paper theoretically and empirically investigates the role of Bayesian noisy cognition in perceptual judgment, focusing on the central tendency effect: the well-known empirical regularity that perceptual judgments are biased towards the center of the...  View Details
Keywords: Visual Perception; Bayesian Modeling; Perception; Judgments
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Inattentive Inference
By: Thomas Graeber
This paper studies how people infer a state of the world from information structures that include additional, payoff-irrelevant states. For example, learning someone’s effort from their observable performance may require accounting for the otherwise irrelevant role of...  View Details
Keywords: Belief Formation; Attention; Bounded Rationality; Values and Beliefs; Information; Mathematical Methods
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  • 2021
  • Working Paper

Intertemporal Altruism
By: Thomas Graeber, Felix Chopra, Philipp Eisenhauer and Armin Falk
Standard consumption utility is linked in time to a consumption event, whereas the timing of prosocial utility flows is ambiguous. Prosocial utility may depend on the actual utility consequences for others – it is consequence-dated – or it may be related to the act of...  View Details
Keywords: Altruism; Donation; Intertemporal Decision-making; Time Inconsistency
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  • 2020
  • Working Paper

Heterogeneity of Gain-Loss Attitudes and Expectations-Based Reference Points
By: Lorenz Goette, Thomas Graeber, Alex Kellogg and Charles Sprenger
We examine the role of heterogeneity in gain-loss attitudes for identifying the leading behavioral model of expectations-based reference dependence (Kőszegi and Rabin, 2006, 2007) (KR). Failure to account for recently-documented heterogeneity in gain-loss attitudes is...  View Details
Keywords: Reference-dependent Preferences; Rational Expectations; Personal Equilibrium; Endowment Effect; Expectations-based Reference Points
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  • March 24, 2020
  • Article

Delayed Negative Effects of Prosocial Spending on Happiness
By: Armin Falk and Thomas Graeber
Does prosocial behavior promote happiness? We test this longstanding hypothesis in a behavioral experiment that extends the scope of previous research. In our Saving a Life paradigm, every participant either saved one human life in expectation by triggering a targeted...  View Details
Keywords: Prosocial Behavior; Altruism; Happiness; Well-being; Spending; Behavior
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