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Publications
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- April 2023
- Article
Inattentive Inference
By: Thomas Graeber
This paper studies how people infer a state of the world from information structures that include additional, payoff-irrelevant states. For example, learning from a customer review about a product’s quality requires accounting for the reviewer’s otherwise irrelevant...
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- March 2023
- Case
Aleksander Ceferin and the European Super League
By: Thomas Graeber, Nour Kteily, James K. Sebenius and Matthew (Matt) Higgins
- March 2023 (Revised July 2023)
- Case
Deepa Bachu (A): Design Thinking at Pensaar Design
By: Thomas Graeber, Joshua Schwartzstein and Amram Migdal
In this case, set in June 2019 in Bangalore, Karnataka, India, Deepa Bachu of Pensaar Design and her team work with client ITC Ltd. to use design thinking and behavioral experiments to improve workplace safety and strive toward the company’s zero-accident goal. The...
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Keywords:
Buildings and Facilities;
Design;
Education;
Training;
Labor;
Working Conditions;
Management;
Business or Company Management;
Operations;
Production;
Organizations;
Business Processes;
Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact;
Outcome or Result;
Failure;
Success;
Performance;
Performance Improvement;
Programs;
Relationships;
Business and Stakeholder Relations;
Groups and Teams;
Labor and Management Relations;
Rank and Position;
Safety;
Social Psychology;
Attitudes;
Behavior;
Motivation and Incentives;
Trust;
Well-being;
Consulting Industry;
Pulp and Paper Industry;
Manufacturing Industry;
India
- March 2023
- Supplement
Deepa Bachu (B): Insights and Experiments at Pensaar Design
By: Thomas Graeber, Joshua Schwartzstein and Amram Migdal
In this case, set in June 2019 in Bangalore, Karnataka, India, Deepa Bachu of Pensaar Design and her team work with client ITC Ltd. to use design thinking and behavioral experiments to improve workplace safety and strive toward the company’s zero-accident goal. The...
View Details
Keywords:
Buildings and Facilities;
Design;
Education;
Training;
Labor;
Working Conditions;
Management;
Business or Company Management;
Operations;
Production;
Organizations;
Business Processes;
Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact;
Outcome or Result;
Failure;
Success;
Performance;
Performance Improvement;
Programs;
Relationships;
Business and Stakeholder Relations;
Groups and Teams;
Labor and Management Relations;
Rank and Position;
Safety;
Social Psychology;
Attitudes;
Behavior;
Motivation and Incentives;
Trust;
Well-being;
Consulting Industry;
Pulp and Paper Industry;
Manufacturing Industry;
India
- 2023
- Working Paper
Complexity and Time
By: Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea
We provide experimental evidence that core intertemporal choice anomalies -- including extreme short-run impatience, structural estimates of present bias, hyperbolicity and transitivity violations -- are driven by complexity rather than time or risk preferences. First,...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
Stories, Statistics and Memory
By: Thomas Graeber, Christopher Roth and Florian Zimmermann
For most decisions, we rely on information encountered over the course of days,
months or years. We consume this information in various forms, including abstract
summaries of multiple data points – statistics – and contextualized anecdotes about
individual instances...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
Confidence, Self-Selection and Bias in the Aggregate
By: Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea
The influence of behavioral biases on aggregate outcomes like prices and allocations depends in part on self-selection: whether rational people opt more strongly into aggregate interactions than biased individuals. We conduct a series of betting market, auction and...
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- 2023
- Working Paper
Cognitive Uncertainty in Intertemporal Choice
By: Benjamin Enke and Thomas Graeber
This paper studies the relevance of cognitive uncertainty – subjective uncertainty over one's utility-maximizing action – for understanding and predicting intertemporal choice. The main idea is that when people are cognitively noisy, such as when a decision is complex,...
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- Article
Measuring the Scientific Effectiveness of Contact Tracing: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
By: Thiemo Fetzer and Thomas Graeber
Contact tracing has for decades been a cornerstone of the public health approach to epidemics, including Ebola, severe acute respiratory syndrome, and now COVID-19. It has not yet been possible, however, to causally assess the method’s effectiveness using a randomized...
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- March 2021
- Article
Bayesian Signatures of Confidence and Central Tendency in Perceptual Judgment
By: Yang Xiang, Thomas Graeber, Benjamin Enke and Samuel Gershman
This paper theoretically and empirically investigates the role of Bayesian noisy cognition in perceptual judgment, focusing on the central tendency effect: the well-known empirical regularity that perceptual judgments are biased towards the center of the...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
Intertemporal Altruism
By: Felix Chopra, Armin Falk and Thomas Graeber
Most prosocial decisions involve intertemporal tradeoffs. Yet, the timing of prosocial utility flows is ambiguous and bypassed by most models of other-regarding preferences. We study the behavioral implications of the time structure of prosocial utility,...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
Heterogeneity of Gain-Loss Attitudes and Expectations-Based Reference Points
By: Pol Campos-Mercade, Lorenz Goette, Thomas Graeber, Alex Kellogg and Charles Sprenger
Existing tests of reference-dependent preferences assume universal loss aversion. This paper examines heterogeneity in gain-loss attitudes, and explores its implications for identifying models of the reference point. In two experimental settings we measure gain-loss...
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- March 24, 2020
- Article
Delayed Negative Effects of Prosocial Spending on Happiness
By: Armin Falk and Thomas Graeber
Does prosocial behavior promote happiness? We test this longstanding hypothesis in a behavioral experiment that extends the scope of previous research. In our Saving a Life paradigm, every participant either saved one human life in expectation by triggering a targeted...
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