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- Fall 2020
- Article
Sizing Up Corporate Restructuring in the COVID Crisis
By: Robin Greenwood, Benjamin Iverson and David Thesmar
In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the financial and legal system will need to deal with a surge of financial distress in the business sector. Some firms will be able to survive, while others will face bankruptcy and thus need to be liquidated or reorganized. Many...
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- February 2020
- Case
Highfields Capital and McDonald's
By: Mark Egan and Robin Greenwood
McDonald’s reported its fifth consecutive quarter of declining same-store sales growth in early 2015. Despite McDonald’s recent poor performance, Jonathon S. Jacobson, the founder and Chief Investment Officer of Boston-based Highfields Capital Management, had initiated...
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- 2020
- Working Paper
A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates
We develop a model in which specialized bond investors must absorb shocks to the supply and demand for long-term bonds in two currencies. Since long-term bonds and foreign exchange are both exposed to unexpected movements in short-term interest rates, a shift in the...
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- 2019
- Working Paper
Reflexivity in Credit Markets
By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Lawrence J. Jin
Reflexivity is the idea that investors' biased beliefs affect market outcomes, and that market outcomes in turn affect investors' beliefs. We develop a behavioral model of the credit cycle featuring such a two-way feedback loop. In our model, investors form beliefs...
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- January 2019
- Article
Bubbles for Fama
By: Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You
We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio...
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Keywords:
Bubble;
Market Efficiency;
Predictability;
Price Bubble;
Stocks;
Price;
Forecasting and Prediction
- October 2018
- Case
The Proxy Fight at ADP
By: Robin Greenwood and E. Scott Mayfield
In July 2017, shares of Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) surged 12% following a report that the activist investor Bill Ackman had acquired a sizable stake in the company and planned to nominate his own slate of directors at the company’s annual meeting in...
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- October 2018 (Revised January 2019)
- Case
The Financial Crisis: Timothy Geithner and the Stress Tests
In February and March 2009, the U.S. economy was in the midst of a terrifying financial and economic crisis. Between the beginning of 2008 and early 2009, four of the 25 largest U.S. financial institutions had failed, and nine of these 25 institutions had taken...
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- October 2018 (Revised January 2019)
- Case
The Financial Crisis: Hank Paulson in 2008
On the afternoon of Monday October 13, 2008, Hank Paulson Jr., the Secretary of the Treasury of the United States, walked into the large conference room across the hall from his office in the Treasury Department. Joining him were Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke,...
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- September 2018
- Article
Asset Price Dynamics in Partially Segmented Markets
By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Gordon Y. Liao
We develop a model in which capital moves quickly within an asset class but slowly between asset classes. While most investors specialize in a single asset class, a handful of generalists can gradually reallocate capital across markets. Upon the arrival...
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- August 2018
- Article
Extrapolation and Bubbles
By: Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin and Andrei Shleifer
We present an extrapolative model of bubbles. In the model, many investors form their demand for a risky asset by weighing two signals: an average of the asset’s past price changes and the asset’s degree of overvaluation. The two signals are in conflict, and investors...
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- 2018
- Working Paper
The Impact of Pensions and Insurance on Global Yield Curves
By: Robin Greenwood and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen
We document a strong effect of pension and insurance company (P&I) assets on the long end of the yield curve. Using data from 26 countries, the yield spread between 30-year and 10-year government bond yields is negatively related to the ratio of pension assets (in...
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- Fall 2017
- Article
Strengthening and Streamlining Bank Capital Regulation
We propose three core principles that should inform the design of bank capital regulation. First, wherever possible, multiple constraints on the minimum level of equity capital should be consolidated into a single constraint. This helps to avoid a distortionary...
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- 2016
- Article
The Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet as a Financial-Stability Tool
By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel Gregory Hanson and Jeremy C. Stein
We argue that the Federal Reserve should use its balance sheet to help reduce a key threat to financial stability: the tendency for private-sector financial intermediaries to engage in excessive amounts of maturity transformation—i.e., to finance risky assets using...
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- 2017
- Working Paper
The Financial Regulatory Reform Agenda in 2017
We take stock of the post-crisis financial regulatory reform agenda. We highlight and summarize areas of clear progress, where post-crisis reforms should either be maintained or built upon. We then identify several areas where the new regulations could be streamlined...
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- 2017
- Working Paper
Rainy Day Stocks
By: Niels Gormsen and Robin Greenwood
We study the good- and bad-times performance of equity portfolios formed on characteristics. Many characteristics associated with good performance during bad times – value, profitability, small size, safety, and total volatility – also perform well during good times....
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- 2016
- Chapter
Forward Guidance in the Yield Curve: Short Rates versus Bond Supply
By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel Gregory Hanson and Dimitri Vayanos
We present a model of the yield curve in which the central bank can provide market participants with forward guidance on both future short rates and on future Quantitative Easing (QE) operations, which affect bond supply. Forward guidance on short rates works through...
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- September 2016
- Supplement
MyTime
By: Juliane Begenau and Robin Greenwood
Excel exhibits to accompany MyTime, HBS Case No. 217026
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- September 2016 (Revised February 2017)
- Case
MyTime
By: Juliane Begenau and Robin Greenwood
Ethan Anderson, the CEO of San Francisco–based e-commerce company MyTime, must decide on the company's growth strategy. MyTime’s first product was a website and mobile app that offered consumers a convenient way to book appointments with local merchants throughout the...
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- April 2016
- Technical Note
Estimating the Equity Risk Premium
By: Samuel Hanson, Robin Greenwood and David Biery
- 2015
- Chapter
Debt Management Conflicts between the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve
By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel Gregory Hanson, Joshua S. Rudolph and Lawrence Summers