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- 2023
- Working Paper
Channeled Attention and Stable Errors
By: Tristan Gagnon-Bartsch, Matthew Rabin and Joshua Schwartzstein
We develop a framework for assessing when somebody will eventually notice that she has
a misspecified model of the world, premised on the idea that she neglects information that
she deems—through the lens of her misconceptions—to be irrelevant. In doing so, we...
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Gagnon-Bartsch, Tristan, Matthew Rabin, and Joshua Schwartzstein. "Channeled Attention and Stable Errors." Working Paper, August 2023. (Revise and Resubmit, Quarterly Journal of Economics.)
- January 2021
- Article
A Model of Relative Thinking
By: Benjamin Bushong, Matthew Rabin and Joshua Schwartzstein
Fixed differences loom smaller when compared to large differences. We propose a model of relative thinking where a person weighs a given change along a consumption dimension by less when it is compared to bigger changes along that dimension. In deterministic settings,...
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Bushong, Benjamin, Matthew Rabin, and Joshua Schwartzstein. "A Model of Relative Thinking." Review of Economic Studies 88, no. 1 (January 2021): 162–191.
- 2010
- Article
Fretting About Modest Risks Is a Mistake
By: Matthew Rabin and Max Bazerman
Managers often engage in risk-averse behavior, and economists, decision analysts, and managers treat risk aversion as a preference. In many cases, acting in a risk-averse manner is a mistake, but managers can correct this mistake with greater reflection. This article...
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Rabin, Matthew, and Max Bazerman. "Fretting About Modest Risks Is a Mistake." California Management Review 61, no. 3 (May 2019): 34–48.
- 2018
- Working Paper
Channeled Attention and Stable Errors -- Previous Working Version
By: Tristan Gagnon-Bartsch, Matthew Rabin and Joshua Schwartzstein
A common critique of models of mistaken beliefs is that people should recognize their error after observations they thought were unlikely. This paper develops a framework for assessing when a given error is likely to be discovered, in the sense that the error-maker...
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Gagnon-Bartsch, Tristan, Matthew Rabin, and Joshua Schwartzstein. "Channeled Attention and Stable Errors -- Previous Working Version." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 18-108, June 2018.
- 2017
- Working Paper
Biased Beliefs About Random Samples: Evidence from Two Integrated Experiments
By: Daniel J. Benjamin, Don A. Moore and Matthew Rabin
This paper describes results of a pair of incentivized experiments on biases in judgments about random samples. Consistent with the Law of Small Numbers (LSN), participants exaggerated the likelihood that short sequences and random subsets of coin flips would be...
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Benjamin, Daniel J., Don A. Moore, and Matthew Rabin. "Biased Beliefs About Random Samples: Evidence from Two Integrated Experiments." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 23927, October 2017.