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  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Sharing Models to Interpret Data
By: Joshua Schwartzstein and Adi Sunderam
To understand new data, we share models or interpretations with others. This paper studies such exchanges of models in a community. The key assumption is that people adopt the interpretation in their community that best explains the data, given their prior beliefs. An...  View Details
Keywords: Social Learning Theory; Theory; Social Issues; Cognition and Thinking; Social and Collaborative Networks; Attitudes
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Perceptions about Monetary Policy
By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam
We estimate perceptions about the Fed's monetary policy rule from micro data on professional forecasters. The perceived rule varies significantly over time, with important consequences for monetary policy and bond markets. Over the monetary policy cycle, easings are...  View Details
Keywords: Monetary Policy; Central Banking; Forecasting and Prediction; Policy; Interest Rates
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

The Impact of Minority Representation at Mortgage Lenders
By: W. Scott Frame, Ruidi Huang, Erik J. Mayer and Adi Sunderam
We study links between the labor market for loan officers and access to mortgage credit. Using novel data matching the (near) universe of mortgage applications to loan officers, we find that minorities are significantly underrepresented among loan officers. Minority...  View Details
Keywords: Household Finance; Demographic Economics; Financial Institutions; Diversity; Prejudice and Bias; Mortgages; Banking Industry
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  • 2022
  • Chapter

Lessons Learned from Support to Business during COVID-19
By: Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Benjamin Iverson and Adi Sunderam
The authors survey the new federal subsidies and loans provided to businesses in the first year of the pandemic—including the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), the Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL) program, and aid targeted at specific industries such as airlines...  View Details
Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Small Business; Government Legislation; Policy
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  • Article

The Cross Section of Bank Value
By: Mark Egan, Stefan Lewellen and Adi Sunderam
We study the determinants of value creation in U.S. commercial banks. We develop novel measures of individual banks' productivities at collecting deposits and making loans. We relate these measures to bank market values and find that deposit productivity is responsible...  View Details
Keywords: Productivity; Banks and Banking; Valuation; Performance Productivity; Value Creation; United States
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  • 2021
  • Chapter

Business Continuity Insurance in the Next Disaster
By: Samuel Gregory Hanson, Adi Sunderam and Eric Zwick
This article draws lessons from the business support policies pursued in the COVID-19 pandemic to guide policy design for the next disaster. We contrast the performance of the Paycheck Protection Program to the Main Street Lending Program to illustrate how design...  View Details
Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Policy; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Financing and Loans; United States
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Segmented Arbitrage
By: Emil Siriwardane, Adi Sunderam and Jonathan L. Wallen
We use arbitrage activity in equity, fixed income, and foreign exchange markets to characterize the frictions and constraints facing intermediaries. The average pairwise correlation between the 29 arbitrage spreads that we study is 21%. These low correlations are...  View Details
Keywords: Financial Intermediation; Arbitrage; Intermediary-based Asset Pricing; Finance; Segmentation
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  • March 2021 (Revised May 2021)
  • Case

Managing Science Communication at Bayer
By: Joshua Schwartzstein and Adi Sunderam
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  • January 2021
  • Article

Using Models to Persuade
By: Joshua Schwartzstein and Adi Sunderam
We present a framework where "model persuaders" influence receivers’ beliefs by proposing models that organize past data to make predictions. Receivers are assumed to find models more compelling when they better explain the data, fixing receivers’ prior beliefs. Model...  View Details
Keywords: Model Persuasion; Analytics and Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods; Framework
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  • Fall 2020
  • Article

Business Credit Programs in the Pandemic Era
By: Samuel G. Hanson, Jeremy C. Stein, Adi Sunderam and Eric Zwick
We develop a pair of models that speak to the goals and design of the sort of business-lending and corporate-bond purchase programs that have been introduced by governments in response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. An overarching theme is that, in contrast to the...  View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Business Lending; Government Intervention; Econometric Models; Health Pandemics; Credit; Governance; Policy
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  • 2023
  • Working Paper

When Should Public Programs Be Privately Administered? Theory and Evidence from the Paycheck Protection Program
By: Alexander Bartik, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca, Christopher Stanton and Adi Sunderam
What happens when public resources are allocated by private companies whose objectives may be imperfectly aligned with policy goals? We study this question in the context of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), which relied on private banks to disburse aid to small...  View Details
Keywords: Paycheck Protection Program; Targeting; Impact; Entrepreneurship; Health Pandemics; Small Business; Financing and Loans; Outcome or Result; United States
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  • August 2020
  • Article

Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy
By: Carolin E. Pflueger, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam
We propose a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVS), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVS is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and...  View Details
Keywords: Risk-centric Business Cycles; Cross-section Of Equities; Real Risk-free Rate; Real Investment; Financial Markets; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Investment
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  • 2020
  • Working Paper

How Should U.S. Bank Regulators Respond to the COVID-19 Crisis?
By: Michael Blank, Samuel G. Hanson, Jeremy C. Stein and Adi Sunderam
Drawing on lessons from the 2007–2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and a simple conceptual framework, we examine the response of U.S. bank regulators to the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that the current regulatory strategy of “watchful waiting”—the same strategy that...  View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Bank Regulation; Recapitalization; Health Pandemics; Banks and Banking; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Strategy; Risk Management; United States
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  • Working Paper

Measuring the Perceived Liquidity of the Corporate Bond Market
By: Sergey Chernenko and Adi Sunderam
We propose a novel measure of bond market liquidity that does not depend on transaction data: the strength of the cross-sectional relationship between mutual fund cash holdings and fund flow volatility. Our measure captures how liquid funds perceive their portfolio...  View Details
Keywords: Bond Market; Bonds; Financial Liquidity; Measurement and Metrics
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  • March 2020
  • Article

Do Fire Sales Create Externalities?
By: Sergey Chernenko and Adi Sunderam
We develop three novel measures of how much of the price impact of their trading different mutual funds internalize. We show that mutual funds that internalize more of their price impact hold larger cash buffers and use these buffers more aggressively to accommodate...  View Details
Keywords: Fire Sales; Externalities; Investment Funds; Price; Financial Liquidity; Management
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  • June 2019
  • Article

Social Risk, Fiscal Risk, and the Portfolio of Government Programs
By: Samuel G. Hanson, David S. Scharfstein and Adi Sunderam
We develop a model of government portfolio choice in which a benevolent government chooses the scale of risky projects in the presence of market failures and tax distortions. These two frictions generate motives to manage social risk and fiscal risk. Social risk...  View Details
Keywords: Risk Management; Government and Politics; Programs
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  • January 2019
  • Module Note

Liquidity Management
By: Adi Sunderam
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  • December 2018
  • Teaching Note

Puerto Rico's COFINA Bonds: Hold or Fold?
By: Adi Sunderam, Luis M. Viceira and Shawn O'Brien
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  • December 2018
  • Teaching Note

Baupost Group: Finding a Margin of Safety in London Real Estate
By: Adi Sunderam, Luis M. Viceira and Shawn O'Brien
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  • October 2018 (Revised January 2019)
  • Case

The Financial Crisis: Timothy Geithner and the Stress Tests
By: Samuel G. Hanson, Robin Greenwood, David Scharfstein and Adi Sunderam
In February and March 2009, the U.S. economy was in the midst of a terrifying financial and economic crisis. Between the beginning of 2008 and early 2009, four of the 25 largest U.S. financial institutions had failed, and nine of these 25 institutions had taken...  View Details
Keywords: Bailout; Regulation; Stress Test; Financial Crisis; History; Economy; Policy; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Decision Making; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; Real Estate Industry; United States
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