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Publications

Publications

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  • All HBS Web  (105,534)
    • Faculty Publications  (13)

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    • All HBS Web  (105,534)
      • Faculty Publications  (13)

      Shleifer, Andrei Remove Shleifer, Andrei →

      Page 1 of 13 Results
      • April 2022
      • Article

      Predictable Financial Crises

      By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer and Jakob Ahm Sørensen
      Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is...  View Details
      Keywords: Financial Crisis; Global Range; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods
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      Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, and Jakob Ahm Sørensen. "Predictable Financial Crises." Journal of Finance 77, no. 2 (April 2022): 863–921.
      • September 2021
      • Article

      Diagnostic Bubbles

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer
      We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and...  View Details
      Keywords: Bubble; Speculation; Diagnostic Expectations; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon, and Andrei Shleifer. "Diagnostic Bubbles." Journal of Financial Economics 141, no. 3 (September 2021).
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Salience

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
      We review the fast-growing work on salience and economic behavior. Psychological research shows that salient stimuli attract human attention “bottom up” due to their high contrast with surroundings, their surprising nature relative to recalled experiences, or their...  View Details
      Keywords: Salience; Economic Behavior; Bottom Up Attention; Microeconomics; Decision Making; Behavior
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Salience." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29274, September 2021.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Property Rights and Urban Form

      By: Simeon Djankov, Edward L. Glaeser, Valeria Perotti and Andrei Shleifer
      How do the different elements in the standard bundle of property rights, including those of possession and transfer, influence the shape of cities? This paper incorporates insecure property rights into a standard model of urban land prices and density, and makes...  View Details
      Keywords: Property; Rights; City; Development Economics; Global Range
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      Djankov, Simeon, Edward L. Glaeser, Valeria Perotti, and Andrei Shleifer. "Property Rights and Urban Form." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28793, May 2021.
      • Article

      Memory and Representativeness

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Katherine Baldiga Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli, Frederik Schwerter and Andrei Shleifer
      We explore the idea that judgment by representativeness reflects the workings of episodic memory, especially interference. In a new laboratory experiment on cued recall, participants are shown two groups of images with different distributions of colors. We find that i)...  View Details
      Keywords: Cued Recall; Interference; Similarity; Probabilistic Judgments; Heuristics And Biases
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Katherine Baldiga Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli, Frederik Schwerter, and Andrei Shleifer. "Memory and Representativeness." Psychological Review 128, no. 1 (January 2021): 71–85.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Real Credit Cycles

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer and Stephen J. Terry
      We incorporate diagnostic expectations, a psychologically founded model of overreaction to news, into a workhorse business cycle model with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of diagnosticity, estimated from the forecast errors of managers of U.S....  View Details
      Keywords: Econometric Models; Business Cycles; Credit
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer, and Stephen J. Terry. "Real Credit Cycles." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28416, January 2021.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Older People Are Less Pessimistic About the Health Risks of COVID-19

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
      A central question for understanding behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic, at both the individual and collective levels, is how people perceive the health and economic risks they face. We conducted a survey of over 1,500 Americans from May 6–13, 2020, to understand...  View Details
      Keywords: Health Pandemics; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Age
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Older People Are Less Pessimistic About the Health Risks of COVID-19." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 27494, July 2020.
      • March 2019
      • Article

      Beliefs about Gender

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Katherine Baldiga Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
      We conduct laboratory experiments that explore how gender stereotypes shape beliefs about ability of oneself and others in different categories of knowledge. The data reveal two patterns. First, men’s and women’s beliefs about both oneself and others exceed observed...  View Details
      Keywords: Performance Evaluation; Perspective; Prejudice and Bias; Gender
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Katherine Baldiga Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Beliefs about Gender." American Economic Review 109, no. 3 (March 2019): 739–773.
      • January 2019
      • Article

      Bubbles for Fama

      By: Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You
      We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio...  View Details
      Keywords: Bubble; Market Efficiency; Predictability; Price Bubble; Stocks; Price; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Greenwood, Robin, Andrei Shleifer, and Yang You. "Bubbles for Fama." Journal of Financial Economics 131, no. 1 (January 2019): 20–43. (Internet Appendix Here.)
      • 2018
      • Working Paper

      Diagnostic Bubbles

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer
      We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and...  View Details
      Keywords: Bubbles; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon, and Andrei Shleifer. "Diagnostic Bubbles." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 25399, December 2018.
      • 2018
      • Book

      A Crisis of Beliefs: Investor Psychology and Financial Fragility

      By: Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
      The collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 caught markets and regulators by surprise. Although the government rushed to rescue other financial institutions from a similar fate after Lehman, it could not prevent the deepest recession in postwar history. A...  View Details
      Keywords: Financial Fragility; Economic Risk; Investor Behavior; Behavioral Economics; Financial Crisis; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Markets; Investment; Values and Beliefs; United States
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      Gennaioli, Nicola, and Andrei Shleifer. A Crisis of Beliefs: Investor Psychology and Financial Fragility. Princeton University Press, 2018.
      • August 2018
      • Article

      Extrapolation and Bubbles

      By: Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin and Andrei Shleifer
      We present an extrapolative model of bubbles. In the model, many investors form their demand for a risky asset by weighing two signals: an average of the asset’s past price changes and the asset’s degree of overvaluation. The two signals are in conflict, and investors...  View Details
      Keywords: Bubble; Extrapolation; Volume; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods
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      Barberis, Nicholas, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin, and Andrei Shleifer. "Extrapolation and Bubbles." Journal of Financial Economics 129, no. 2 (August 2018): 203–227.
      • February 2018
      • Article

      Diagnostic Expectations and Credit Cycles

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
      Citation
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Diagnostic Expectations and Credit Cycles." Journal of Finance 73, no. 1 (February 2018): 199–227.
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