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Shleifer, Andrei Remove Shleifer, Andrei →

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  • September 2021
  • Article

Diagnostic Bubbles
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer
We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and...  View Details
Keywords: Bubble; Speculation; Diagnostic Expectations; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods
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  • 2021
  • Working Paper

Salience
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
We review the fast-growing work on salience and economic behavior. Psychological research shows that salient stimuli attract human attention “bottom up” due to their high contrast with surroundings, their surprising nature relative to recalled experiences, or their...  View Details
Keywords: Salience; Economic Behavior; Bottom Up Attention; Microeconomics; Decision Making; Behavior
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  • 2021
  • Working Paper

Property Rights and Urban Form
By: Simeon Djankov, Edward L. Glaeser, Valeria Perotti and Andrei Shleifer
How do the different elements in the standard bundle of property rights, including those of possession and transfer, influence the shape of cities? This paper incorporates insecure property rights into a standard model of urban land prices and density, and makes...  View Details
Keywords: Property; Rights; City; Development Economics; Global Range
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  • 2021
  • Working Paper

Real Credit Cycles
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer and Stephen J. Terry
We incorporate diagnostic expectations, a psychologically founded model of overreaction to news, into a workhorse business cycle model with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of diagnosticity, estimated from the forecast errors of managers of U.S....  View Details
Keywords: Econometric Models; Business Cycles; Credit
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  • 2020
  • Working Paper

Older People Are Less Pessimistic About the Health Risks of COVID-19
By: Pedro Bordalo, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
A central question for understanding behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic, at both the individual and collective levels, is how people perceive the health and economic risks they face. We conducted a survey of over 1,500 Americans from May 6–13, 2020, to understand...  View Details
Keywords: Health Pandemics; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Age
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  • Article

Memory and Representativeness
By: Pedro Bordalo, Katherine Baldiga Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli, Frederik Schwerter and Andrei Shleifer
We explore the idea that judgment by representativeness reflects the workings of episodic memory, especially interference. In a new laboratory experiment on cued recall, participants are shown two groups of images with different distributions of colors. We find that i)...  View Details
Keywords: Cued Recall; Interference; Similarity; Probabilistic Judgments; Heuristics And Biases
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  • March 2019
  • Article

Beliefs about Gender
By: Pedro Bordalo, Katherine Baldiga Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
We conduct laboratory experiments that explore how gender stereotypes shape beliefs about ability of oneself and others in different categories of knowledge. The data reveal two patterns. First, men’s and women’s beliefs about both oneself and others exceed observed...  View Details
Keywords: Performance Evaluation; Perspective; Prejudice and Bias; Gender
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  • January 2019
  • Article

Bubbles for Fama
By: Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You
We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio...  View Details
Keywords: Bubble; Market Efficiency; Predictability; Price Bubble; Stocks; Price; Forecasting and Prediction
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  • 2018
  • Working Paper

Diagnostic Bubbles
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer
We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and...  View Details
Keywords: Bubbles; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods
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  • 2018
  • Book

A Crisis of Beliefs: Investor Psychology and Financial Fragility
By: Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
The collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 caught markets and regulators by surprise. Although the government rushed to rescue other financial institutions from a similar fate after Lehman, it could not prevent the deepest recession in postwar history. A...  View Details
Keywords: Financial Fragility; Economic Risk; Investor Behavior; Behavioral Economics; Financial Crisis; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Markets; Investment; Values and Beliefs; United States
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  • August 2018
  • Article

Extrapolation and Bubbles
By: Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin and Andrei Shleifer
We present an extrapolative model of bubbles. In the model, many investors form their demand for a risky asset by weighing two signals: an average of the asset’s past price changes and the asset’s degree of overvaluation. The two signals are in conflict, and investors...  View Details
Keywords: Bubble; Extrapolation; Volume; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods
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  • February 2018
  • Article

Diagnostic Expectations and Credit Cycles
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
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  • Forthcoming
  • Article

Predictable Financial Crises
By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer and Jakob Ahm Sørensen
Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is...  View Details
Keywords: Financial Crisis; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods
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