We describe how to employ machine learning (ML) methods in theory development. Compared to traditional causal inference methods, ML methods make far fewer a priori assumptions about the functional form of the underlying model that best represents the data. Thus researchers could use such methods to explore novel and robust patterns in data, which could in turn lead to inductive theory building. ML’s strengths include replicable identification of novel patterns in data. ML methods also address several issues raised by scholars (such as “p-hacking” and confounding local effects with global effects) pertinent to the norms of empirical research in the fields of strategy and management. We provide a step-by-step roadmap that illustrates how to use four ML methods (decision trees, random forests, K-nearest neighbors, and neural networks) to reveal patterns in data that could be used for theory building. We also illustrate how ML methods can illuminate interactions and non-linear effects better than traditional methods. In summary, ML methods could serve as a complement to both existing inductive theory-creating methods, such as multiple-case inductive studies and traditional methods of causal inference.

Alibaba's Rural Taobao initiative had been launched in 2014 as a public service initiative to increase e-commerce adoption in China’s remote rural areas. In the first two iterations of the initiative, dubbed “1.0” and “2.0”, Alibaba had partnered with local businesses and young returnees to operate village stations. Village stations served as logistical and educational hubs to help villagers make online purchases. Despite significant growth in sales through village stations, the business model was operating at a loss, and competitors JD and Pinduoduo were growing quickly, threatening to challenge Alibaba by claiming the rural e-commerce markets. Bill Wang, the head of the initiative, was tasked with designing and implementing the next model for Alibaba’s future expansion into rural areas. The decision centers around whether Alibaba should copy the successes of competitors JD and Pinduoduo, escalate commitment to its original value proposition (hands-on service to villagers), or embrace an entirely new model. The case highlights the competing pressures of financial performance, CSR and corporate mission, government relations, and long-term competitive positioning that are common to major strategic decisions.