Pathways to Decarbonization by 2050
In a heating transformation study presented to Rhode Island Governor Gina Raimondo, economists at The Brattle Group examine potential solutions that can transform Rhode Island’s heating sector as part of the state’s commitment to economy-wide decarbonization. While it is not yet clear which specific pathway will best provide decarbonized heat, substantial progress can be made in the next decade to replace the fossil fuels – natural gas, heating oil, and propane – that the state currently uses for heating.
Prepared for the Rhode Island Division of Public Utilities and Carriers and the Rhode Island Office of Energy Resources, the study examines the relative economic attractiveness of several solutions for decarbonizing the heating sector. These solutions fall into three broad categories: improving building energy efficiency, replacing current fossil heating fuels with carbon-neutral renewable gas or oil, or replacing existing fossil-fueled boilers and furnaces with electric ground source or air source heat pumps (GSHP, ASHP) powered by carbon-free electricity.
The report finds that cost-effective energy efficiency retrofits will reduce both emissions and costs to consumers, but cannot eliminate the need for heat in hundreds of thousands of existing buildings in the state. Thus, some combination of the decarbonized heat alternatives – electrification with heat pumps or decarbonized fuels – will also need to be adopted in virtually all of Rhode Island’s buildings.
Why the Region Needs to Keep Its Foot on the Clean Energy Accelerator
This report analyzes the pace of clean energy additions that would be needed to meet New England's 2050 economy-wide decarbonization targets. It concludes that to meet those targets average annual clean energy additions would likely have to increase 4-8 fold over the pace currently planned for the coming decade. However, it also concludes that a sustained annual growth rate of renewable energy resource additions of less than 10% and below historic growth rates of the relevant industries (onshore wind, offshore wind, solar, batteries) would be sufficient to build out the required clean energy portfolios by 2050.
After more than two decades in consulting, Jurgen joined the Harvard Business School faculty in 2020 as a member of the Business, Government, and the International Economy Unit. He currently teaches the first year BGIE core course and is developing an energy focused second year elective course. He is a Faculty Affiliate of the Business & Environment Initiative as well as a Faculty Fellow at the Harvard Environmental Economics Program. In addition, Jurgen continues to be a Principal at The Brattle Group, an international economic consulting firm.
His research and consulting work focus on the fundamental transformation of the energy industry in light of rapid technological change and climate change-related pressures. He has published, consulted and testified on specific topics such as the decarbonization/electrification of transportation and buildings, the deep decarbonization of the power sector and the impacts these changes have on assets, (carbon and energy) market design, market structures, long-term planning needs, and business models for companies inside and outside the energy industry.
He previously served on the advisory council for California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard, was an advisor to the King Abdullah City of Atomic and Renewable Energy in Saudi Arabia, and on the Department of Energy's Wind Vision Task Force.
Apart from his consulting career at the Brattle Group, Dr. Weiss was a co-founder and managing director of Watermark Economics, the managing director of Point Carbon's global advisory practice, a director at LECG, and an associate of Booz Allen & Hamilton. Dr. Weiss holds an MBA from Columbia University and a Ph.D. in Business Economics from Harvard University.
- Featured Work
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Pathways to Decarbonization by 2050
In a heating transformation study presented to Rhode Island Governor Gina Raimondo, economists at The Brattle Group examine potential solutions that can transform Rhode Island’s heating sector as part of the state’s commitment to economy-wide decarbonization. While it is not yet clear which specific pathway will best provide decarbonized heat, substantial progress can be made in the next decade to replace the fossil fuels – natural gas, heating oil, and propane – that the state currently uses for heating.
Prepared for the Rhode Island Division of Public Utilities and Carriers and the Rhode Island Office of Energy Resources, the study examines the relative economic attractiveness of several solutions for decarbonizing the heating sector. These solutions fall into three broad categories: improving building energy efficiency, replacing current fossil heating fuels with carbon-neutral renewable gas or oil, or replacing existing fossil-fueled boilers and furnaces with electric ground source or air source heat pumps (GSHP, ASHP) powered by carbon-free electricity.
The report finds that cost-effective energy efficiency retrofits will reduce both emissions and costs to consumers, but cannot eliminate the need for heat in hundreds of thousands of existing buildings in the state. Thus, some combination of the decarbonized heat alternatives – electrification with heat pumps or decarbonized fuels – will also need to be adopted in virtually all of Rhode Island’s buildings.
Why the Region Needs to Keep Its Foot on the Clean Energy Accelerator
This report analyzes the pace of clean energy additions that would be needed to meet New England's 2050 economy-wide decarbonization targets. It concludes that to meet those targets average annual clean energy additions would likely have to increase 4-8 fold over the pace currently planned for the coming decade. However, it also concludes that a sustained annual growth rate of renewable energy resource additions of less than 10% and below historic growth rates of the relevant industries (onshore wind, offshore wind, solar, batteries) would be sufficient to build out the required clean energy portfolios by 2050.
- Journal Articles
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- Weiss, Jurgen. "Who's Afraid of 100%?" Opinion. Utility Dive (February 6, 2020). View Details
- Weiss, Jurgen. "The Electrified Future Is Shared: Mobility Services and Electrification's Pace, Shape." Public Utilities Fortnightly PUF 2.0 (February 15, 2018). View Details
- Weiss, Jurgen, Ryan Hledik, Roger Lueken, Tony Lee, and Will Gorman. "The Electrification Accelerator: Understanding the Implications of Autonomous Vehicles for Electric Utilities." Electricity Journal 30, no. 10 (December 2017): 50–57. View Details
- Denny, Eleanor, and Jurgen Weiss. "Hurry or Wait: The Pros and Cons of Going Fast or Slow on Climate Change." Economists' Voice 12, no. 1 (August 2015): 19–24. View Details
- Sioshansi, Ramteen, Paul Denholm, Thomas Jenkin, and Jurgen Weiss. "Estimating the Value of Electricity Storage in PJM: Arbitrage and Some Welfare Effects." Energy Economics 31, no. 2 (March 2020): 269–277. View Details
- Weiss, Jurgen. "Are REC Markets a WRECk Waiting to Happen?" Natural Gas & Electricity 23, no. 4 (November 2006): 7–11. View Details
- Stauffer, Hoff, and Jurgen Weiss. "A Simple Solution to a Very Old Problem." Electricity Journal 19, no. 4 (May 2006): 56–59. View Details
- Weiss, Jurgen. "Market Power and Power Markets." Interfaces 32, no. 5 (September–October 2002): 37–46. View Details
- Book Chapters
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- Cases and Teaching Materials
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- Weiss, Jurgen. "Woodside - Betting on the Future of Gas." Harvard Business School Case 722-019, September 2021. View Details
- Weiss, Jurgen. "Oil: History, Present and Future." Harvard Business School Background Note 722-011, August 2021. View Details
- Weiss, Jurgen. "Dandelion: Making Geothermal Heat Pumps a Real Option." Harvard Business School Case 722-010, August 2021. View Details
- Weiss, Jurgen, and Emilie Billaud. "Northvolt: Making the World's Greenest Battery." Harvard Business School Case 722-004, August 2021. View Details
- Weiss, Jurgen. "Daimler - Betting on the Future of Mobility." Harvard Business School Case 722-006, July 2021. View Details
- Weiss, Jurgen, and Richard H.K. Vietor. "NuScale - Commercializing the First Small Modular Reactor in the World." Harvard Business School Case 721-047, May 2021. View Details
- Weiss, Jurgen, William A. Sahlman, and Joseph B. Lassiter III. "1366 Technologies: Surviving in a Fast Changing World." Harvard Business School Case 721-015, October 2020. View Details
- Other Publications and Materials
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- Weiss, Jurgen. "Decarbonizing Economy Requires Lot More Electricity: Big Ramp-ups in Solar, Wind Power Are Needed." CommonWealth (October 19, 2019). View Details
- Weiss, Jurgen, Steven Levine, Yingxia Yang, and Anul Thapa. "LNG and Renewable Power: Risk and Opportunity in a Changing World." White Paper, Brattle Group, Boston, MA, January 2016. View Details
- Research Summary
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Jurgen's research focuses on the challenges and opportunites to the energy sector created by technological change and externalities, in particular those associated with greenhouse gas emissons. Specific areas of interest include the development of potential pathways to the decarbonization of the energy system. He studies the economics of systems comprised of various types of renewable energy and other carbon-neutral supply sources, various types of storage, and various options for demand flexibility). This area of research also includes understanding the potential speed and depth of the adoption of carbon-neutral alternatives to fossil fuel use in major GHG emitting sectors other than electriciy, including the transportation, buildings and industrial sectors. Topics include electrification of transport, the potential role of carbon-neutral drop-in fuels in both transportation, the building and the industrial sector, and an understanding of the functioning of fully decarbonized energy and electricity systems.
Jurgen's research is also interested in the market, regulatory and policy mechanisms suitable to support the transition to a future energy system without major (environmental) externalities as well as the market and regulatory structures needed to maintain reliable and efficient future energy systems.
- Additional Information
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- Areas of Interest
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- In The News
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