The Limits of Insurance Demand and the Growing Protection Gap

In a world with rising risk, how much are U.S. households willing to pay for homeowners insurance, and what does their demand imply for the future of insurance markets? We provide the first estimates of household willingness to pay for homeowners insurance and the drivers of household insurance demand elasticities by exploiting quasi-exogenous regulatory shocks to insurance pricing. We utilize newly available individual-level data on homeowners insurance contracts covering the entire United States for over a decade, with rich information on mortgage contracts, property characteristics, and climate exposures. We document pervasive under-insurance, particularly among the most financially vulnerable households. We find that even at actuarially fair premiums, households’ willingness to pay is below expected losses, and demand remains elastic—results that are inconsistent with the textbook models of insurance demand. Financial constraints are a key force: constrained households reduce coverage as premiums rise, while unconstrained households borrow more to maintain insurance coverage. Exogenous increases in the cost of credit also reduce coverage demand. These results raise the concern that financial constraints reduce willingness to pay for insurance even below the actuarially fair price required for insurers to remain solvent, suggesting that the market may disappear for the most constrained, financially vulnerable households. If prices were to continue growing at historical rates moving forward, our estimates imply that between 17% to 31% of households would hit binding LTV constraints and be forced to reduce coverage substantially, meaning insurance markets may shrink even as losses from natural disasters rise.