Publications
Publications
- 2025
- HBS Working Paper Series
Navigating Choppy Waters: How U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty Affects Small Businesses
By: David Atkin, Zoë Cullen and Ebehi Iyoha
Abstract
This paper explores the impact of recent changes in the US trade policy environment
on small businesses. Drawing on a survey of more than 4,000 small businesses conducted
between March 22 and 31, 2025, we examine firms’ knowledge, expectations, and
decisions during a period of substantial trade policy uncertainty. Our findings reveal
widespread knowledge gaps about current tariffs, even among internationally exposed
firms. Most businesses expect continued policy uncertainty throughout 2025, anticipate
reduced sales and increased costs, face limited options for mitigating tariff-induced cost
increases, and do not expect government assistance in facilitating adaptation. These
results highlight the vulnerability of small businesses, which represent a significant
share of US economic activity, to rapid trade policy changes and suggest the need for
clear policy communication and targeted support mechanisms.
Keywords
Trade; Risk and Uncertainty; Government Legislation; Globalization; International Relations; Small Business
Citation
Atkin, David, Zoë Cullen, and Ebehi Iyoha. "Navigating Choppy Waters: How U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty Affects Small Businesses." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-048, April 2025.