Publications
Publications
- 2024
- HBS Working Paper Series
Charting (and Updating) the Path: A Bayesian Perspective on Entrepreneurial Learning
Abstract
This chapter explores two distinct modes of entrepreneurial learning: assessing
venture viability and choosing between alternative development paths. It introduces
a framework for decomposing venture viability into technological feasibility, commercial
potential and development costs, while highlighting how entrepreneurs and investors
may have divergent beliefs about these components. The chapter then presents a
novel approach for visualizing and analyzing multiple potential development paths,
incorporating factors such as independent project characteristics, learning spillovers,
and development distances between paths. By integrating these elements, the framework
allows entrepreneurs to make more informed decisions about initial paths and subsequent
pivots, moving beyond simple heuristics to a more comprehensive understanding of
tradeoffs and relative values across different development strategies.
Keywords
Citation
Krieger, Joshua L. "Charting (and Updating) the Path: A Bayesian Perspective on Entrepreneurial Learning." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-031, December 2024.