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  • 2024
  • Working Paper
  • HBS Working Paper Series

Climate Solutions, Transition Risk, and Stock Returns

By: Shirley Lu, Edward J. Riedl, Simon Xu and George Serafeim
  • Format:Print
  • | Language:English
  • | Pages:82
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Abstract

Using large language models to measure firms' climate solution products and services, we find that high-climate solution firms exhibit lower stock returns and higher market valuation multiples. Their stock prices respond positively to events signaling increased demand for climate solutions. These firms also show higher future profitability during periods of regulatory uncertainty, unexpected increases in climate concerns, and when a larger share of their sales occurs in states with climate plans and stronger public support for addressing climate change. Overall, our results indicate that high-climate solution firms, whose business benefits as climate transition risks materialize, hedge investors against such risks.

Keywords

Technology; Generative Ai; Large Language Models; Climate Finance; Climate Change; Innovation and Invention; Environmental Sustainability; AI and Machine Learning; Investment; Financial Markets

Citation

Lu, Shirley, Edward J. Riedl, Simon Xu, and George Serafeim. "Climate Solutions, Transition Risk, and Stock Returns." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-024, November 2024.
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About The Authors

Shirley Lu

Accounting and Management
→More Publications

George Serafeim

Accounting and Management
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