Publications
Publications
- 2024
- U.S.-China Relations for the 2030s: Toward a Realistic Scenario for Coexistence
What Future for the Renminbi in the Global Monetary System?
By: Edoardo Campanella and Meg Rithmire
Abstract
What is a realistic and positive outcome for US-China relations in the realm of global finance over the next ten years? While some policymakers, especially in the US, have feared that China holds ambitions for the renminbi (RMB) to replace the dollar as a global reserve currency, we argue that this is far from the case. China’s ambitions have been to internationalize the renminbi, but, as a result of domestic financial turmoil and a reckoning over the tradeoffs of sovereignty and currency internationalization, those ambitions have been moderated substantially over the last decade. We argue that the US ought to encourage renminbi internationalization as a costless means of assurance to China, to incentivize reform and moderation, and to encourage a system of monetary co-existence that neither strains the dollar nor generates a bifurcated global financial system.
Keywords
International Relations; Currency; Macroeconomics; Globalized Economies and Regions; China; United States
Citation
Campanella, Edoardo, and Meg Rithmire. "What Future for the Renminbi in the Global Monetary System?" Chap. 7 in U.S.-China Relations for the 2030s: Toward a Realistic Scenario for Coexistence, edited by Chris Chivvis, C. Fred Bergsten, Edoardo Campanella, John Culver, Rosemary Foot, M. Taylor Fravel, Eric Heginbotham, Evan S. Medeiros, Meg Rithmire, George Perkovich, Stephen M. Walt, Stephen Wertheim, and Audrye Wong, 67–78. Washington D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2024.