Publications
Publications
- 2023
Sovereign Default and the Decline in Interest Rates
By: Max Miller, James Paron and Jessica Wachter
Abstract
Sovereign debt yields have declined dramatically over the last half-century. Standard explanations, including aging populations and increases in asset demand from abroad, encounter difficulties when confronted with the full range of evidence. We propose an explanation based on a decline in inflation and default risk, which we argue is more consistent with the long-run nature of the interest-rate decline. We show that a model with investment, inventory storage, and sovereign default captures the decline in interest rates, the stability of equity valuation ratios, and the recent reduction in investment and output growth coinciding with the binding zero lower bound.
Keywords
Citation
Miller, Max, James Paron, and Jessica Wachter. "Sovereign Default and the Decline in Interest Rates." Working Paper, June 2023. (Revise and Resubmit, Review of Financial Studies.)