AB InBev: Brewing Up Forecasts during COVID-19

Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 224-020. In July 2021, the CEO of AB InBev's European operations and his team strategized to position the company for success post-pandemic. As the world's largest beer company, boasting over 500 brands, revenue of $46 billion, and a workforce of 160,000 in 2020, AB InBev grappled with the repercussions of the pandemic, particularly the adverse effects on on-trade customers like bars and restaurants. Historically a traditional firm in a conventional industry, AB InBev had begun a substantial digital transformation in recent years. This strategic shift was aimed at leveraging data and market insights more effectively. A key component of this transformation was the creation of the Growth Analytics Center (GAC) in India in 2016, a move designed to embed advanced forecasting and analytics into their business model. As the pandemic unfolded, management increasingly relied on the GAC's analytics and forecasts to navigate the evolving crisis. With pandemic restrictions starting to relax in mid-2021, the company began considering substantial investments in the struggling on-trade sector to gain market share. The dilemma was whether to proactively reinvest in the on-trade sector or take a cautious approach. The decision rested on interpreting GAC data and the company's financial outlook.