Publications
Publications
- 2025
- HBS Working Paper Series
How Do Voters Respond to Cues by Charismatic Leaders? Evidence from Brazil
By: Paula Rettl
Abstract
While elite-cue effects on public opinion are well-documented, questions remain as
to when and why voters use elite cues to inform their opinions and behaviors. This
study contributes to answer these questions by testing whether voters react to cues
by charismatic leaders as a way to make decisions with little effort (heuristics) or to
express group membership (expressive utility). To do so, I combine observational and
experimental data from Brazil during the pandemic. First, I document a divergence
in COVID-19 trends between municipalities with different concentrations of President
Bolsonaro voters, a pattern that is more pronounced in areas with higher levels of
education. Second, I rely on two survey experiments to examine whether these patterns
are causal and what are the likely individual motives underlying these effects. I
show that Bolsonaro’s cues polarized COVID-19 attitudes between his opponents and
supporters. I also show that these patterns are more pronounced for individuals with
stronger political-social identities. Finally, I provide evidence that Bolsonaro supporters
with a high propensity to put effort into reasoning are the ones most likely to follow
his cues. Taken together, the evidence suggests that supporters primarily follow Bolsonaro’s
cues to affirm their political identity, whereas opponents’ reactions reflect a
more heterogeneous mix of motivations.
Keywords
Elites; Public Engagement; Politics; Political Affiliation; Political Campaigns; Political Influence; Political Leadership; Political Economy; Survey Research; COVID-19; COVID-19 Pandemic; COVID; Cognitive Psychology; Cognitive Biases; Political Elections; Voting; Power and Influence; Identity; Behavior; Latin America; Brazil
Citation
Rettl, Paula. "How Do Voters Respond to Cues by Charismatic Leaders? Evidence from Brazil." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-022, October 2023. (Revised June 2025.)