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  • 2025
  • Working Paper
  • HBS Working Paper Series

How Do Voters Respond to Cues by Charismatic Leaders? Evidence from Brazil

By: Paula Rettl
  • Format:Print
  • | Language:English
  • | Pages:74
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Abstract

While elite-cue effects on public opinion are well-documented, questions remain as to when and why voters use elite cues to inform their opinions and behaviors. This study contributes to answer these questions by testing whether voters react to cues by charismatic leaders as a way to make decisions with little effort (heuristics) or to express group membership (expressive utility). To do so, I combine observational and experimental data from Brazil during the pandemic. First, I document a divergence in COVID-19 trends between municipalities with different concentrations of President Bolsonaro voters, a pattern that is more pronounced in areas with higher levels of education. Second, I rely on two survey experiments to examine whether these patterns are causal and what are the likely individual motives underlying these effects. I show that Bolsonaro’s cues polarized COVID-19 attitudes between his opponents and supporters. I also show that these patterns are more pronounced for individuals with stronger political-social identities. Finally, I provide evidence that Bolsonaro supporters with a high propensity to put effort into reasoning are the ones most likely to follow his cues. Taken together, the evidence suggests that supporters primarily follow Bolsonaro’s cues to affirm their political identity, whereas opponents’ reactions reflect a more heterogeneous mix of motivations.

Keywords

Elites; Public Engagement; Politics; Political Affiliation; Political Campaigns; Political Influence; Political Leadership; Political Economy; Survey Research; COVID-19; COVID-19 Pandemic; COVID; Cognitive Psychology; Cognitive Biases; Political Elections; Voting; Power and Influence; Identity; Behavior; Latin America; Brazil

Citation

Rettl, Paula. "How Do Voters Respond to Cues by Charismatic Leaders? Evidence from Brazil." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-022, October 2023. (Revised June 2025.)
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About The Author

Paula C. Rettl

Business, Government and the International Economy
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More from the Author
  • Turning Away from the State: Trade Shocks and Informal Insurance in Brazil By: Paula Rettl
  • A Gender Backlash: Does Exposure to Female Labor Market Participation Fuel Gender Conservatism? By: Paula Rettl, Diane Bolet, Catherine E. De Vries, Simone Cremaschi, Tarik Abou-Chadi and Sergi Pardos-Prado
  • Global Harms, Local Profits: How the Uneven Costs of Natural Disasters Affect Support for Green Political Platforms By: Silvia Pianta and Paula Rettl
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