How Do Voters Respond to Cues by Charismatic Leaders? Evidence from Brazil

While elite-cue effects on public opinion are well-documented, questions remain as to when and why voters use elite cues to inform their opinions and behaviors. This study contributes to answer these questions by testing whether voters react to cues by charismatic leaders as a way to make decisions with little effort (heuristics) or to express group membership (expressive utility). To do so, I combine observational and experimental data from Brazil during the pandemic. First, I document a divergence in COVID-19 trends between municipalities with different concentrations of President Bolsonaro voters, a pattern that is more pronounced in areas with higher levels of education. Second, I rely on two survey experiments to examine whether these patterns are causal and what are the likely individual motives underlying these effects. I show that Bolsonaro’s cues polarized COVID-19 attitudes between his opponents and supporters. I also show that these patterns are more pronounced for individuals with stronger political-social identities. Finally, I provide evidence that Bolsonaro supporters with a high propensity to put effort into reasoning are the ones most likely to follow his cues. Taken together, the evidence suggests that supporters primarily follow Bolsonaro’s cues to affirm their political identity, whereas opponents’ reactions reflect a more heterogeneous mix of motivations.