Publications
Publications
- 2025
- HBS Working Paper Series
Global Harms, Local Profits: How the Uneven Costs of Natural Disasters Affect Support for Green Political Platforms
By: Silvia Pianta and Paula Rettl
Abstract
Large-scale fires are becoming increasingly common due to climate change. While conventional
wisdom suggests that firsthand experiences with natural disasters foster green coalitions
by raising awareness of environmental degradation, we propose an alternative view:
natural disasters can heighten the perceived trade-off between economic development and
environmental policies. This study examines the case of Brazil, where large-scale fires, by
clearing natural vegetation, create new opportunities for land grabbing and the expansion of
agriculture and livestock production. Using satellite, administrative, and electoral data, we
show that large-scale fires increase support for green candidates only in municipalities unlikely
to gain economically from the fires. Survey data further indicates that voters prioritize
environmental protection over economic growth only when they stand to receive limited or
no benefit from the newly cleared land. Our findings suggest that the potential for natural
disasters to foster green coalitions is contingent upon their distributive effects.
Keywords
Climate Impact; Politics; Environmental Issues; Environmental Protection; Economic Analysis; Economic Behavior; Economic Geography; Economy; Economics; Climate Change; Environmental Management; Political Elections; Natural Disasters; Green Technology; Environmental Sustainability; Latin America; Brazil
Citation
Pianta, Silvia, and Paula Rettl. "Global Harms, Local Profits: How the Uneven Costs of Natural Disasters Affect Support for Green Political Platforms." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-023, September 2023. (Revised January 2025.)