Forecasting Climate Risks: Aviva’s Climate Calculus

In late 2021, Ben Carr, Director of Analytics and Capital Modeling at Aviva Plc (Aviva)—a leading insurer with core operations in the UK, Ireland and Canada,—was preparing for an upcoming presentation before the company's board which included its CEO, Amanda Blanc, featuring the results of Aviva's performance in the Climate Biennial Exploratory Scenario (CBES) exercise mandated by the Bank of England. The CBES required all major banks and insurers in the country to formally assess the financial risks arising from both the physical impacts of climate change and the transition to a net zero economy. As Carr was in the final stages of refining and updating the CBES findings, he and his team were tasked with discerning how potential climate change consequences might influence each element on Aviva's balance sheet. Additionally, the team was charged with not only evaluating the existing assets and liabilities on Aviva’s balance sheet, but also pondering the future operations of the business. Carr was aware that assessing climate risk was a complex task, fraught with its unique set of challenges and limitations. He was prepared to further discuss these issues, as he knew the board would be keen to delve deeper into their intricacies.