Publications
Publications
- April 21, 2023
- Harvard Business Review Digital Articles
When Scenario Planning Fails
By: Kalle Heikkinen, William R. Kerr, Mika Malin, Panu Routila and Eemil Rupponen
Abstract
How can organizations perform scenario planning when they are hit by shocks outside of leaders’ field of vision? Interviews with Nordic executives, who experienced both the Covid-19 pandemic and were in close proximity to Russia as the country invaded Ukraine, can provide clues. Instead of abandoning the typical “base case / best case / worst case” planning, they adapted their planning to encompass four main strategies other companies can try: stretching the types of scenarios under consideration, using vulnerabilities as a prism, building strong action guidelines and internal communication, and building crisis management into the organizational structure.
Keywords
Planning; Crisis Management; Organizational Structure; Forecasting and Prediction; System Shocks; Organizational Change and Adaptation
Citation
Heikkinen, Kalle, William R. Kerr, Mika Malin, Panu Routila, and Eemil Rupponen. "When Scenario Planning Fails." Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (April 21, 2023).