Publications
Publications
- Forthcoming
- Journal of International Economics
What Can Stockouts Tell Us About Inflation? Evidence from Online Micro Data
By: Alberto Cavallo and Oleksiy Kryvtsov
Abstract
We use a detailed micro dataset on product availability and stockouts to construct a direct high-frequency measure of consumer product shortages during the 2020-2022 pandemic. We document a widespread multi-fold rise in stockouts in nearly all sectors early in the pandemic. Over time, the composition evolved from temporary to more permanently discontinued products, concentrated in fewer sectors. We show that unexpected shocks to stockout levels have significant inflationary effects within three months. These effects are larger and more persistent for imported goods and import-intensive sectors. We develop a model of inventories in a sector facing both demand and cost disturbances, and use the observed joint dynamics of stockouts and prices to show that these effects can be associated with elevated costs of replenishing inventories and higher exposure to trade.
Keywords
Prices; Stockouts; Inventories; Supply Disruptions; COVID-19 Pandemic; Supply Chain; Product; Demand and Consumers
Citation
Cavallo, Alberto, and Oleksiy Kryvtsov. "What Can Stockouts Tell Us About Inflation? Evidence from Online Micro Data." Journal of International Economics (forthcoming). (Pre-published online April 28, 2023.)