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  • January 11, 2023
  • Article
  • ForeignAffairs.com

Russia and Ukraine Are Not Ready for Talks: But They Might Get There If Ukraine Keeps Winning

By: James K. Sebenius and Michael Singh
  • Format:Electronic
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Abstract

While there are many calls for negotiation between Ukraine and Russia to end their war, there does now (early 2023) not appear to be a zone of possible agreement (ZOPA), since each side's best no-agreement option ("BATNA") likely appears superior to any mutually acceptable deal (and, of course, neither side is monolithic and assessing the full set of interests at stake is challenging). To open up a ZOPA for the possibility of successful diplomacy, interested parties such as the United States and its allies should act to simultaneously enhance Ukraine's no-agreement option, worsen Russia's, as well as to begin to prepare agreements that will become appealing and a process to enable effective negotiation when/as the situation permits.

Keywords

Diplomacy; Agreements; Ukraine; International Relations; War; Negotiation; Ukraine; Russia

Citation

Sebenius, James K., and Michael Singh. "Russia and Ukraine Are Not Ready for Talks: But They Might Get There If Ukraine Keeps Winning." ForeignAffairs.com (January 11, 2023).
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About The Author

James K. Sebenius

Negotiation, Organizations & Markets
→More Publications

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More from the Authors
  • Christiana Figueres and the Collaborative Approach to Negotiating Climate Action By: James K. Sebenius, Laurence A. Green, Hannah Riley-Bowles, Lara SanPietro and Mina Subramanian
  • Aleksander Ceferin and the European Super League By: Thomas Graeber, Nour Kteily, James K. Sebenius and Matthew (Matt) Higgins
  • Steve Schwarzman on Dealmaking II: When They Hold All the Cards (B) By: James K. Sebenius and Alex Green
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