Skip to Main Content
HBS Home
  • About
  • Academic Programs
  • Alumni
  • Faculty & Research
  • Baker Library
  • Giving
  • Harvard Business Review
  • Initiatives
  • News
  • Recruit
  • Map / Directions
Faculty & Research
  • Faculty
  • Research
  • Featured Topics
  • Academic Units
  • …→
  • Harvard Business School→
  • Faculty & Research→
Publications
Publications
  • May 2023
  • Article
  • Quarterly Journal of Economics

How Do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates

By: Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons
  • Format:Print
  • | Pages:65
ShareBar

Abstract

We use two-round survey data from 62 elections in 10 countries since 1952 to study the formation of vote choice, beliefs, and policy preferences and assess how televised debates contribute to this process. Our data include 253,000 observations. We compare the consistency between vote intention and vote choice of respondents surveyed at different points before, and then again after, the election, and show that 17% to 29% of voters make up their mind during the final two months of campaigns. Changes in vote choice are concomitant to shifts in issues voters find most important and in beliefs about candidates, and they generate sizable swings in vote shares. In contrast, policy preferences remain remarkably stable throughout the campaign. Finally, we use an event study to estimate the impact of TV debates, in which candidates themselves communicate with voters, and of shocks such as natural and technological disasters which, by contrast, occur independently from the campaign. We do not find any effect of either type of event on vote choice formation, suggesting that information received throughout the campaign from other sources such as the media, political activists, and other citizens is more impactful.

Keywords

Political Debates; TV Debates; Voting; Political Elections; Decision Choices and Conditions

Citation

Le Pennec, Caroline, and Vincent Pons. "How Do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates." Quarterly Journal of Economics 138 (May 2023): 703–767.
  • Find it at Harvard
  • Read Now

About The Author

Vincent Pons

Business, Government and the International Economy
→More Publications

More from the Authors

    • July 2023
    • Faculty Research

    The Business of Campaigns

    By: Vincent Pons
    • 2023
    • Faculty Research

    Keep Your Enemies Closer: Strategic Platform Adjustments during U.S. and French Elections

    By: Rafael Di Tella, Randy Kotti, Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons
    • June 2023
    • Faculty Research

    The Business of Campaigns

    By: Vincent Pons and Mel Martin
More from the Authors
  • The Business of Campaigns By: Vincent Pons
  • Keep Your Enemies Closer: Strategic Platform Adjustments during U.S. and French Elections By: Rafael Di Tella, Randy Kotti, Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons
  • The Business of Campaigns By: Vincent Pons and Mel Martin
ǁ
Campus Map
Harvard Business School
Soldiers Field
Boston, MA 02163
→Map & Directions
→More Contact Information
  • Make a Gift
  • Site Map
  • Jobs
  • Harvard University
  • Trademarks
  • Policies
  • Accessibility
  • Digital Accessibility
Copyright © President & Fellows of Harvard College