Causes and Consequences of State Violence against Civilians: The Rohingya of Myanmar

The Rohingya crisis is a severe, ongoing conflict involving large-scale violence and forced displacement, yet its causes are contested and its consequences lack systematic documentation. We marshal a variety of existing and original data to shed light on its drivers, characteristics, and human cost. First, in contrast with the narrative of the state’s armed forces, we show that violence against civilians in Myanmar responds to economic motives: it increases during times when international rice prices are high in places suitable for rice cultivation. This pattern is consistent with a rapacity effect, and a mechanism in which the government and majority ethnic groups use violence and looting to appropriate rice and rice-suitable land. Second, using a structural VAR approach, we demonstrate that the Tatmadaw (Myanmar's armed forces) responds to conflict-precipitating incidents with disproportionate force and civilian targeting, but only when Rohingya Muslims - either civilians or militia members - are involved. In other major ethnic conflicts, the Tatmadaw responds with proportional force and does not target civilians. Finally, we explore the mental health consequences of enduring systematic violence using data from a representative survey of Rohingya refugees living in Cox's Bazar.