Publications
Publications
- 2022
The Causes and Consequences of Ethnic Violence in Myanmar
By: C. Austin Davis, Paula Lopez-Pena, A. Mushfiq Mobarak and Jaya Wen
Abstract
The Rohingya crisis is a severe, ongoing conflict involving large-scale violence and forced
displacement, yet its causes are contested and its consequences lack systematic documentation. We marshal a variety of existing and original data to shed light on its drivers,
characteristics, and human cost. First, in contrast with the narrative of the state’s armed
forces, we show that violence against civilians in Myanmar responds to economic motives:
it increases during times when international rice prices are high in places suitable for rice
cultivation. This pattern is consistent with a rapacity effect, and a mechanism in which
the government and majority ethnic groups use violence and looting to appropriate rice
and rice-suitable land. Second, using a structural VAR approach, we demonstrate that the
Tatmadaw (Myanmar’s armed forces) responds to conflict-precipitating incidents with disproportionate force and civilian targeting, but only when Rohingya Muslims—either civilians
or militia members—are involved. In other major ethnic conflicts, the Tatmadaw responds
with proportional force and does not target civilians. Finally, we explore the mental health
consequences of enduring systematic violence using data from a representative survey of
Rohingya refugees living in Cox’s Bazar. We find that refugees have endured significant
trauma, more than one-third meet the symptom criteria for depression, and that traumatic
experiences are associated with depression.
Keywords
War; Conflict and Resolution; Motivation and Incentives; Developing Countries and Economies; Myanmar
Citation
Davis, C. Austin, Paula Lopez-Pena, A. Mushfiq Mobarak, and Jaya Wen. "The Causes and Consequences of Ethnic Violence in Myanmar." Working Paper, October 2022.