Skip to Main Content
HBS Home
  • About
  • Academic Programs
  • Alumni
  • Faculty & Research
  • Baker Library
  • Giving
  • Harvard Business Review
  • Initiatives
  • News
  • Recruit
  • Map / Directions
Faculty & Research
  • Faculty
  • Research
  • Featured Topics
  • Academic Units
  • …→
  • Harvard Business School→
  • Faculty & Research→
Publications
Publications
  • Forthcoming
  • Article
  • Journal of the European Economic Association

The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Productivity

By: Laura Alfaro, Alejandro Cuñat, Harald Fadinger and Yanping Liu
  • Format:Print
ShareBar

Abstract

We evaluate manufacturing firms' responses to changes in the real exchange rate (RER) using detailed firm-level data for a large set of countries for the period 2001-2010. We uncover the following stylized facts about regional variation of manufacturing firms' integration into global value chains: firms in emerging Asia are very export oriented relative to their dependence on imported intermediates; firms from Latin America and Eastern Europe depend heavily on imported intermediates compared to their export orientation; firms from high-income countries export on average as much as they import. Motivated by these facts, we build a dynamic model in which real depreciations raise the cost of importing intermediates, affect export demand, borrowing-constraints and the profitability of engaging in innovation (R&D). We decompose the effects of RER changes on average firm-level productivity growth across regions into these channels. We then structurally estimate the model and quantitatively evaluate the different mechanisms by providing counterfactual simulations of temporary RER movements. In export-oriented emerging Asia, real depreciations are on average associated with higher firm-level probabilities to engage in R&D, faster growth of firm-level productivity and cash-flow and higher export entry rates. We find negative average effects for firms in other emerging economies, which are relatively more import dependent, and no significant average effects for firms in industrialized economies. Effects on physical TFP growth, while different across regions, are non-linear and asymmetric.

Keywords

Real Exchange Rate; Firm Level Data; Innovation; Productivity; Exporting; Importing; Credit Constraints; Currency Exchange Rate; Innovation and Invention; Performance Productivity

Citation

Alfaro, Laura, Alejandro Cuñat, Harald Fadinger, and Yanping Liu. "The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Productivity." Journal of the European Economic Association (forthcoming). (Published online October 19, 2022.)
  • Find it at Harvard
  • Read Now

About The Author

Laura Alfaro

General Management
→More Publications

More from the Authors

    • September 2022
    • Management Science

    Health Externalities and Policy: The Role of Social Preferences

    By: Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia, Nora Lamersdorf and Farzad Saidi
    • July 2022
    • Faculty Research

    FIELD Immersion 2022: Lawrence, Massachusetts

    By: Laura Alfaro and Tom Quinn
    • 2022
    • Faculty Research

    Distributional Consequences of Monetary Policy Across Races: Evidence from the U.S. Credit Register

    By: Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia and Camelia Minoiu
More from the Authors
  • Health Externalities and Policy: The Role of Social Preferences By: Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia, Nora Lamersdorf and Farzad Saidi
  • FIELD Immersion 2022: Lawrence, Massachusetts By: Laura Alfaro and Tom Quinn
  • Distributional Consequences of Monetary Policy Across Races: Evidence from the U.S. Credit Register By: Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia and Camelia Minoiu
ǁ
Campus Map
Harvard Business School
Soldiers Field
Boston, MA 02163
→Map & Directions
→More Contact Information
  • Make a Gift
  • Site Map
  • Jobs
  • Harvard University
  • Trademarks
  • Policies
  • Accessibility
  • Digital Accessibility
Copyright © President & Fellows of Harvard College