Publications
Publications
- 2022
- HBS Working Paper Series
Machine Learning Models for Prediction of Scope 3 Carbon Emissions
By: George Serafeim and Gladys Vélez Caicedo
Abstract
For most organizations, the vast amount of carbon emissions occur in their supply chain and in the post-sale processing, usage, and end of life treatment of a product, collectively labelled scope 3 emissions. In this paper, we train machine learning algorithms on 15 reported types of scope 3 emissions. The models utilize as inputs widely available financial statement variables, scope 1 and 2 emissions, and industrial classifications. We find that most reported scope 3 emission types can be predicted with higher accuracy using Adaptive Boosting machine learning algorithms relative to linear regression models and other supervised machine learning algorithms.
Keywords
Carbon Emissions; Climate Change; Environment; Carbon Accounting; Machine Learning; Artificial Intelligence; Digital; Data Science; Environmental Sustainability; Environmental Management; Environmental Accounting
Citation
Serafeim, George, and Gladys Vélez Caicedo. "Machine Learning Models for Prediction of Scope 3 Carbon Emissions." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-080, June 2022.