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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Causal Inference During A Pandemic: Evidence on the Effectiveness of Nebulized Ibuprofen as an Unproven Treatment for COVID-19 in Argentina

By: Sebastian Calonico, Rafael Di Tella and Juan Cruz Lopez Del Valle
  • Format:Print
  • | Language:English
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Abstract

Many medical decisions during the pandemic were made without the support of causal evidence obtained in clinical trials. We study the case of nebulized ibuprofen (NaIHS), a drug that was extensively used on COVID-19 patients in Argentina amidst wild claims about its effectiveness and without regulatory approval. We study data on 5,146 patients hospitalized in 11 health centers spread over 4 provinces, of which a total of 1,019 (19.8%) received the treatment. We find a large, negative and statistically significant correlation between NaIHS treatment and mortality using inverse probability weighting estimators. We consider several threats to identification, including the selection of “low” risks into NaIHS, spillovers affecting patients in the control group, and differences in the quality of care in centers that use NaIHS. While the negative correlation appears to be, broadly, robust, our results are best interpreted as emphasizing the benefits of running a randomized controlled trial and the challenges of incorporating information produced in other, less rigorous circumstances.

Keywords

COVID-19; Drug Treatment; Health Pandemics; Health Care and Treatment; Decision Making; Outcome or Result; Argentina

Citation

Calonico, Sebastian, Rafael Di Tella, and Juan Cruz Lopez Del Valle. "Causal Inference During A Pandemic: Evidence on the Effectiveness of Nebulized Ibuprofen as an Unproven Treatment for COVID-19 in Argentina." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30084, May 2022.
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About The Author

Rafael M. Di Tella

Business, Government and the International Economy
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  • The Trouble with TCE By: Vincent Pons and Rafael Di Tella
  • Does Social Media Cause Polarization? Evidence from Access to Twitter Echo Chambers during the 2019 Argentine Presidential Debate By: Rafael Di Tella, Ramiro H. Gálvez and Ernesto Schargrodsky
  • The 2012 Spanish Labor Reform: Lifting All Boats, or Leveling Down? By: Vincent Pons, Rafael Di Tella, Santiago Botella and Elena Corsi
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