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  • November 2022
  • Article
  • Psychological Science

Opportunity Neglect: An Aversion to Low-probability Gains

By: Emily Prinsloo, Kate Barasz, Leslie K. John and Michael I. Norton
  • Format:Print
  • | Pages:10
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Abstract

Seven preregistered studies (N = 2,890) conducted in the field, lab, and online document opportunity neglect: a tendency to reject opportunities with low probability of success, even when they come with little or no objective cost (e.g., time, money, reputation). In Study 1, participants rejected a low-probability opportunity in an everyday context. Participants also rejected incentive-compatible gambles with positive expected value—for both goods (Study 2), and money (Studies 3–7)—even with no possibility of monetary loss and non-trivial stakes (e.g., a 1% chance at $99). Participants rejected low-probability opportunities more frequently than high-probability opportunities with equal expected value (Study 3). While taking some real-life opportunities comes with costs, we show that people are even willing to incur costs to opt out of low-probability opportunities (Study 4). Opportunity neglect can be mitigated by highlighting that rejecting an opportunity is equivalent to choosing a zero probability of success (Studies 6-7).

Keywords

Opportunities; Behavior; Risk and Uncertainty; Success; Perception

Citation

Prinsloo, Emily, Kate Barasz, Leslie K. John, and Michael I. Norton. "Opportunity Neglect: An Aversion to Low-probability Gains." Psychological Science 33, no. 11 (November 2022): 1857–1866.
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About The Authors

Leslie K. John

Negotiation, Organizations & Markets
→More Publications

Michael I. Norton

Negotiation, Organizations & Markets
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  • Laughter on Call: Injecting Conversational Levity By: Alison Wood Brooks, Michael I. Norton and F Katelynn Boland
  • Reaching for Rigor and Relevance: Better Marketing Research for a Better World By: Shilpa Madan, Gita Venkataramani Johar, Jonah Berger, Pierre Chandon, Rajesh Chandy, Rebecca Hamilton, Leslie John, Aparna Labroo, Peggy J. Liu, John G. Lynch, Nina Mazar, Nicole Mead, Vikas Mittal, Christine Moorman, Michael I. Norton, John Roberts, Dilip Soman, Madhu Viswanathan and Katherine White
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