Can Evidence-Based Information Shift Preferences Towards Trade Policy?

We investigate the role of evidence-based information in shaping individuals' preferences for trade policies, through a series of survey experiments that contain randomized information treatments. Each treatment provides a concise statement of economics research findings on how openness to trade has affected labor market outcomes or prices. Across annual surveys from 2018-2022, each administered to a representative sample of the U.S. general population, we find that information on the impacts of trade influences trade policy preferences in complex ways. Information highlighting the link between trade and manufacturing job losses significantly raises expressed preferences for more limits on trade; this tendency is only partially offset if respondents receive additional information describing the accompanying expansion in non-manufacturing jobs. Strikingly (and rather paradoxically), information on the price benefits of trade (or the cost of tariffs) also induces protectionist policy choices. Our exploration of underlying mechanisms shows that these effects are driven in part by how the received information interacts with respondents' priors, including their perceptions of the economic impact of trade, social concerns, political identity, as well as concerns over trade with China. The findings indicate that individuals' preferences over trade policies are not formed in isolation from the identity of the key countries that the U.S. is trading with, so information that focuses solely on communicating the benefits of trade is unlikely to succeed unless it addresses broader concerns tied to U.S.-China relations.