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Can Evidence-Based Information Shift Preferences Towards Trade Policy?

By: Laura Alfaro, Maggie X. Chen and Davin Chor
  • Format:Print
  • | Language:English
  • | Pages:89
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Abstract

Amid public skepticism about trade, we investigate whether evidence-based information--a concise statement of a research finding--can shape preferences towards trade policy. Across survey experiments conducted over 2018-2022 on U.S. general population samples, we consistently uncover a “backfire effect”: Information that highlights benefits from trade (job gains in productive sectors or lower consumer prices) induces protectionist policy choices, particularly among Republicans. We interpret this finding through the lens of a model of prior-biased belief updating. Averting this backfire effect will require addressing the prior beliefs--specifically, over the impact of trade on jobs and trade relations with China--that we find prevalent among respondents inclined toward protectionism.

Keywords

Evidence; Preference; Trade Policy; Information; Trade; Policy; Attitudes

Citation

Alfaro, Laura, Maggie X. Chen, and Davin Chor. "Can Evidence-Based Information Shift Preferences Towards Trade Policy?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-062, March 2022. (Revised October 2024. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31240, May 2023)

About The Author

Laura Alfaro

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