Skip to Main Content
HBS Home
  • About
  • Academic Programs
  • Alumni
  • Faculty & Research
  • Baker Library
  • Giving
  • Harvard Business Review
  • Initiatives
  • News
  • Recruit
  • Map / Directions
Faculty & Research
  • Faculty
  • Research
  • Featured Topics
  • Academic Units
  • …→
  • Harvard Business School→
  • Faculty & Research→
Publications
Publications
  • 2022
  • Article
  • Behavioral Science & Policy

Leadership & Overconfidence

By: Don A Moore and Max H. Bazerman
  • Format:Print
  • | Pages:11
ShareBar

Abstract

Expressions of confidence can give leaders credibility. In the political realm, they can earn votes and public approval for decisions made in office. Such support is justified when the confidence displayed is truly a sign that a leader (whether a candidate or an incumbent) is competent. However, when politicians are overconfident, the result can be the election of incompetent leaders and the adoption of misguided policies. In this article, we discuss processes that can lead to a confidence “arms race” that encourages politicians to display more confidence than their rivals do. We also illustrate how overconfidence and hyperbole have impaired responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in many nations and offer guidance for distinguishing politicians who display levels of confidence that reflect their true assessment of a situation from those who fake their self-assurance. We then suggest ways that leaders in all spheres can convey uncertainty honestly without losing credibility, and we propose a way to prevent overconfidence from resulting in ineffective or counterproductive legislation.

Keywords

Personal Characteristics; Leadership; Government Legislation; Political Elections

Citation

Moore, Don A., and Max H. Bazerman. "Leadership & Overconfidence." Behavioral Science & Policy 8, no. 2 (2022): 59–69.
  • Read Now

About The Author

Max H. Bazerman

Negotiation, Organizations & Markets
→More Publications

More from the Authors

    • February 2025
    • Faculty Research

    Slice Labs: Creating a Fraud-Free Online Insurance Platform

    By: Amit Goldenberg, Max Bazerman and Ruth Page
    • February 2025
    • Faculty Research

    Slice Labs: Creating a Fraud-Free Online Insurance Platform (B)

    By: Amit Goldenberg, Max Bazerman and Ruth Page
    • 2025
    • Faculty Research

    Negotiation: The Game Has Changed

    By: Max Bazerman
More from the Authors
  • Slice Labs: Creating a Fraud-Free Online Insurance Platform By: Amit Goldenberg, Max Bazerman and Ruth Page
  • Slice Labs: Creating a Fraud-Free Online Insurance Platform (B) By: Amit Goldenberg, Max Bazerman and Ruth Page
  • Negotiation: The Game Has Changed By: Max Bazerman
ǁ
Campus Map
Harvard Business School
Soldiers Field
Boston, MA 02163
→Map & Directions
→More Contact Information
  • Make a Gift
  • Site Map
  • Jobs
  • Harvard University
  • Trademarks
  • Policies
  • Accessibility
  • Digital Accessibility
Copyright © President & Fellows of Harvard College.