Commercial Space Stations, Chickens and Eggs, and Demand for Activity in Low-Earth Orbit

With the International Space Station set to retire in January 2031, NASA has made clear its desire to transition to commercially-led space stations in low-earth orbit (LEO). But the history of commercial station attempts has been fraught, characterized by a lack of demand and a string of failed ventures. The recent space renaissance and the concomitant surge of entrepreneurial space activities has brought renewed optimism about the possibility of commercial stations. Will commercial stations finally succeed, or will the US be faced with a potentially disastrous capability gap in LEO?