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  • June 2022
  • Article
  • Management Science

Conservatism Gets Funded? A Field Experiment on the Role of Negative Information in Novel Project Evaluation

By: Jacqueline N. Lane, Misha Teplitskiy, Gary Gray, Hardeep Ranu, Michael Menietti, Eva C. Guinan and Karim R. Lakhani
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Abstract

The evaluation and selection of novel projects lies at the heart of scientific and technological innovation, and yet there are persistent concerns about bias, such as conservatism. This paper investigates the role that the format of evaluation, specifically information sharing among expert evaluators, plays in generating conservative decisions. We executed two field experiments in two separate grant-funding opportunities at a leading research university, mobilizing 369 evaluators from seven universities to evaluate 97 projects, resulting in 761 proposal-evaluation pairs and more than $250,000 in awards. We exogenously varied the relative valence (positive and negative) of others’ scores and measured how exposures to higher and lower scores affect the focal evaluator’s propensity to change their initial score. We found causal evidence of a negativity bias, where evaluators lower their scores by more points after seeing scores more critical than their own rather than raise them after seeing more favorable scores. Qualitative coding of the evaluators’ justifications for score changes reveals that exposures to lower scores were associated with greater attention to uncovering weaknesses, whereas exposures to neutral or higher scores were associated with increased emphasis on nonevaluation criteria, such as confidence in one’s judgment. The greater power of negative information suggests that information sharing among expert evaluators can lead to more conservative allocation decisions that favor protecting against failure rather than maximizing success.

Keywords

Project Evaluation; Innovation; Knowledge Frontier; Information Sharing; Negativity Bias; Projects; Innovation and Invention; Information; Knowledge Sharing

Citation

Lane, Jacqueline N., Misha Teplitskiy, Gary Gray, Hardeep Ranu, Michael Menietti, Eva C. Guinan, and Karim R. Lakhani. "Conservatism Gets Funded? A Field Experiment on the Role of Negative Information in Novel Project Evaluation." Management Science 68, no. 6 (June 2022): 4478–4495.
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About The Authors

Jacqueline Ng Lane

Technology and Operations Management
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Karim R. Lakhani

Technology and Operations Management
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More from the Authors
  • The Subjective Expected Utility Approach and a Framework for Defining Project Risk in Terms of Novelty <i>and</i> Feasibility—A Response to Franzoni and Stephan (2023), ‘Uncertainty and Risk-Taking in Science’ By: Jacqueline N. Lane
  • TSG Hoffenheim; Step by Step Analysis in Excel By: Feng Zhu, Karim R. Lakhani, Kerry Herman and Sascha L. Schmidt
  • Freelancer, Ltd. By: Christopher Stanton, Karim R. Lakhani, Jin Hyun Paik and Nina Cohodes
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