2021
Working Paper
HBS Working Paper Series

The Luck of the Draw: The Causal Effect of Physicians on Birth Outcomes

By: Arlen Guarin, Christian Posso, Estefania Saravia and Jorge Tamayo

Abstract

We estimate the effect of physicians on health outcomes by exploiting a Colombian government program that randomly assigns newly graduated physicians to hospitals across the country. Using administrative data from the program, vital statistics records, and individual records from the mandatory field-specific college graduation exams, we show that more-skilled physicians improve health at birth of infants whose mothers received care in those hospitals during their pregnancy. We show that the mechanisms underlying the results are the time physicians spend with the patient and their success in targeting care toward the most vulnerable patients.

Keywords

Health Care and Treatment; Health Industry; Colombia

Citation

Guarin, Arlen, Christian Posso, Estefania Saravia, and Jorge Tamayo. "The Luck of the Draw: The Causal Effect of Physicians on Birth Outcomes." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-015, February 2021.