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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

What Triggers National Stock Market Jumps?

By: Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis and Marco Sammon
  • Format:Print
  • | Language:English
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Abstract

We examine newspapers the day after major stock-market jumps to evaluate the proximate cause, geographic source, and clarity of these events from 1900 in the US, 1930 in the UK and 1980 in 12 other countries. We find four main results. First, the United States plays an outsized role in global stock markets, accounting for 35% of jumps outside the US since the 1980s. Second, policy causes a higher share of positive than negative jumps in all countries we examine, particularly monetary and government spending policy. We provide evidence that suggests these expansionary policy decisions are often made in response to poor economic conditions. Third, jumps caused by non-policy events lead to higher future volatility, while jumps caused by policy events (particularly monetary policy) reduce future volatility. Finally, the clarity of the cause of stock market jumps predicts future stock returns volatility. This type of clarity has increased substantially since 1900 as news and financial markets have become more transparent.

Keywords

Uncertainty; Policy Uncertainty; Stock Market; Financial Markets; Volatility; Risk and Uncertainty; Policy; Newspapers

Citation

Baker, Scott R., Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, and Marco Sammon. "What Triggers National Stock Market Jumps?" Working Paper, February 2022.
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About The Author

Marco Sammon

Finance
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  • The Disappearing Index Effect By: Robin Greenwood and Marco Sammon
  • The Retail Habitat By: Toomas Laarits and Marco Sammon
  • Retail Investors’ Contrarian Behavior Around News, Attention, and the Momentum Effect By: Cheng (Patrick) Luo, Enrichetta Ravina, Marco Sammon and Luis M. Viceira
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