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  • November 2021
  • Article
  • Quantitative Economics

Panel Experiments and Dynamic Causal Effects: A Finite Population Perspective

By: Iavor Bojinov, Ashesh Rambachan and Neil Shephard
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Abstract

In panel experiments, we randomly assign units to different interventions, measuring their outcomes, and repeating the procedure in several periods. Using the potential outcomes framework, we define finite population dynamic causal effects that capture the relative effectiveness of alternative treatment paths. For a rich class of dynamic causal effects, we provide a nonparametric estimator that is unbiased over the randomization distribution and derive its finite population limiting distribution as either the sample size or the duration of the experiment increases. We develop two methods for inference: a conservative test for weak null hypotheses and an exact randomization test for sharp null hypotheses. We further analyze the finite population probability limit of linear fixed effects estimators. These commonly-used estimators do not recover a causally interpretable estimand if there are dynamic causal effects and serial correlation in the assignments, highlighting the value of our proposed estimator.

Keywords

Panel Data; Dynamic Causal Effects; Potential Outcomes; Finite Population; Nonparametric; Mathematical Methods

Citation

Bojinov, Iavor, Ashesh Rambachan, and Neil Shephard. "Panel Experiments and Dynamic Causal Effects: A Finite Population Perspective." Quantitative Economics 12, no. 4 (November 2021): 1171–1196.
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About The Author

Iavor I. Bojinov

Technology and Operations Management
→More Publications

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More from the Authors
  • Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development By: Daniel Yue, Paul Hamilton and Iavor Bojinov
  • On Ramp to Crypto By: Iavor Bojinov, Michael Parzen and Paul Hamilton
  • A Causal Test of the Strength of Weak Ties By: Karthik Rajkumar, Guillaume Saint-Jacques, Iavor I. Bojinov, Erik Brynjolfsson and Sinan Aral
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