Reserve Accumulation, Sovereign Debt, and Exchange Rate Policy

Laura  Alfaro; Fabio   Kanczuk

Chapter | Asset Management at Central Banks and Monetary Authorities | 2020

Reserve Accumulation, Sovereign Debt, and Exchange Rate Policy

by Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk

Abstract

In the past decade, foreign participation in local-currency bond markets in emerging countries increased dramatically. Additionally, emerging countries are increasingly deviating from inflation targeting regimes, managing their exchange rate and engaging in exchange-rate accumulation. In light of these trends, we revisit sovereign debt sustainability, and the choice of the optimal exchange-rate regime, under the assumptions that countries can accumulate reserves and borrow internationally using their own currency. As opposed to traditional sovereign debt models, asset valuation effects occasioned by currency fluctuations act to absorb global shock and render consumption smoother. Countries do not accumulate reserve to be depleted in “bad” times. Instead, issuing domestic debt while accumulating reserves acts as a hedge against external shocks. We propose that a “pseudo-flexible regime” is the best policy alternative for emerging nations that face international shocks. A quantitative exercise suggests this strategy to be effective for smoothing consumption and reducing the occurrence of default and obtains that optimal reserve holdings turn out to be as large as those presently observed.

Keywords: reserves; exchange rate; Sovereign Finance; Currency Exchange Rate; Policy;

Format: Print

Citation:

Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "Reserve Accumulation, Sovereign Debt, and Exchange Rate Policy." In Asset Management at Central Banks and Monetary Authorities: New Practices in Managing International Foreign Exchange Reserves, edited by Jacob Bjorheim. Springer, 2020. (Book link.)

For the past few decades, Australia has dealt with the benefits and costs of repeated mining booms—inflation, a housing bubble, a current account deficit, and growing dependence on China. Between 1996 and 2007, however, Australia had most of these issues under control and grew at impressive rates, becoming one of the richest of developed countries. Yet competitiveness in its non-mining sectors declined. Since the financial crisis, additional challenges associated with climate change, minerals taxes, migration, fiscal deficits, and currency fluctuations have complicated the issues facing both Labor and Liberal administrations, with a very thin majority. Meanwhile, Australia's non-mineral competitiveness continues to recede.

Case | HBS Case Collection | July 2005 (Revised September 2020)

The U.S. Current Account Deficit

Laura Alfaro, Rafael Di Tella, Ingrid Vogel, Renee Kim, Sarah Jeong, Matthew Johnson and Jonathan Schlefer

Investors and policymakers throughout the world were confronted with the risk of painful economic consequences arising from the large U.S. current account deficit. In 2007, the U.S. current account deficit was $731 billion, equivalent to 5.3% of GDP. The implications of the deficit were debated with intensity. At one extreme, it was argued that large deficits would eventually resolve themselves smoothly, even if they persisted for many more years. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan was among those expecting a "benign resolution to the U.S. current account imbalance." Other analysts, such as economists at the World Bank, believed the large deficits raised the risk of a sharp and disorderly fall of the dollar and that necessary macroeconomic adjustment could be painful, for the United States as well as for the rest of the world. The Financial Times asked: "How long will foreigners be prepared to make such generous 'gifts' to the US?" In this environment, Berkshire Hathaway, run by legendary investor Warren Buffett, postulated that current account imbalances would lead to "some chaotic markets in which currency adjustments play a part" and announced to shareholders a plan to increase investment in overseas companies to protect against this risk. It remained to be seen what the short- and long-term implications of the current account deficit would ultimately yield.

Keywords: world economy; Macroeconomics; Borrowing and Debt; Currency; Foreign Direct Investment; Business and Government Relations; United States;

Citation:

Alfaro, Laura, Rafael Di Tella, Ingrid Vogel, Renee Kim, Sarah Jeong, Matthew Johnson, and Jonathan Schlefer. "The U.S. Current Account Deficit." Harvard Business School Case 706-002, July 2005. (Revised September 2020.) View Details

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On May 26, 2020, Latam Airlines became the largest airline in the world to be driven to bankruptcy by COVID-19. With a complex debt structure and international investor composition, the company decided to file for bankruptcy protection in the United States, which offered a more flexible reorganization procedure than the local bankruptcy process. After the filing announcement, the company reached an all-time-low stock market valuation. Some experts questioned whether the bankruptcy filing of Latam Airlines in the United States could be detrimental for the development of the Chilean capital market. Even if the company succeeded financially, would it be able to adapt to a different way of flying post-COVID?

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Reserve Accumulation, Sovereign Debt, and Exchange Rate Policy

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