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  • January 2021
  • Article
  • American Economic Review

Using Models to Persuade

By: Joshua Schwartzstein and Adi Sunderam
  • Format:Print
  • | Pages:48
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Abstract

We present a framework where "model persuaders" influence receivers’ beliefs by proposing models that organize past data to make predictions. Receivers are assumed to find models more compelling when they better explain the data, fixing receivers’ prior beliefs. Model persuaders face a tradeoff: better-fitting models induce less movement in receivers’ beliefs. Consequently, a receiver exposed to the true model can be most misled by persuasion when that model fits poorly, competition between persuaders tends to neutralize the data by pushing towards better-fitting models, and a persuader facing multiple receivers is more effective when he can send tailored, private messages.

Keywords

Model Persuasion; Analytics and Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods; Framework

Citation

Schwartzstein, Joshua, and Adi Sunderam. "Using Models to Persuade." American Economic Review 111, no. 1 (January 2021): 276–323.
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About The Authors

Joshua R. Schwartzstein

Negotiation, Organizations & Markets
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Adi Sunderam

Finance
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More from the Authors
  • The Impact of Minority Representation at Mortgage Lenders By: W. Scott Frame, Ruidi Huang, Erica Jiang, Yeonjoon Lee, Will Liu, Erik J. Mayer and Adi Sunderam
  • Hidden Risk By: Daniel Barth, Phillip Monin, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam
  • Perceptions About Monetary Policy By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam
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