Skip to Main Content
HBS Home
  • About
  • Academic Programs
  • Alumni
  • Faculty & Research
  • Baker Library
  • Giving
  • Harvard Business Review
  • Initiatives
  • News
  • Recruit
  • Map / Directions
Faculty & Research
  • Faculty
  • Research
  • Featured Topics
  • Academic Units
  • …→
  • Harvard Business School→
  • Faculty & Research→
Publications
Publications
  • January 2021
  • Article
  • American Economic Review

Using Models to Persuade

By: Joshua Schwartzstein and Adi Sunderam
  • Format:Print
ShareBar

Abstract

We present a framework where "model persuaders" influence receivers’ beliefs by proposing models that organize past data to make predictions. Receivers are assumed to find models more compelling when they better explain the data, fixing receivers’ prior beliefs. Model persuaders face a tradeoff: better-fitting models induce less movement in receivers’ beliefs. Consequently, a receiver exposed to the true model can be most misled by persuasion when that model fits poorly, competition between persuaders tends to neutralize the data by pushing towards better-fitting models, and a persuader facing multiple receivers is more effective when he can send tailored, private messages.

Keywords

Model Persuasion; Analytics and Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods; Framework

Citation

Schwartzstein, Joshua, and Adi Sunderam. "Using Models to Persuade." American Economic Review 111, no. 1 (January 2021): 276–323.
  • Find it at Harvard
  • Read Now

About The Authors

Joshua R. Schwartzstein

Negotiation, Organizations & Markets
→More Publications

Adi Sunderam

Finance
→More Publications

More from the Authors

    • February 2023
    • Faculty Research

    Managing Mistakes

    By: Joshua Schwartzstein
    • February 2023
    • Faculty Research

    Behavioral Economics Profile

    By: Joshua Schwartzstein
    • February 2023
    • Faculty Research

    Behavioral Economics Profile: Understanding the Student Packet

    By: Joshua Schwartzstein
More from the Authors
  • Managing Mistakes By: Joshua Schwartzstein
  • Behavioral Economics Profile By: Joshua Schwartzstein
  • Behavioral Economics Profile: Understanding the Student Packet By: Joshua Schwartzstein
ǁ
Campus Map
Harvard Business School
Soldiers Field
Boston, MA 02163
→Map & Directions
→More Contact Information
  • Make a Gift
  • Site Map
  • Jobs
  • Harvard University
  • Trademarks
  • Policies
  • Accessibility
  • Digital Accessibility
Copyright © President & Fellows of Harvard College