Predictions, Prophets, and Restarting Your Business

Frank V. Cespedes

Article | Harvard Business School Working Knowledge

Predictions, Prophets, and Restarting Your Business

Abstract

The first task of crisis management is a reasonably accurate view of the current situation and how it might evolve. There are many predictions about so-called “new normal” as a result of the semi-enforced social distancing necessitated by the coronavirus. But most are simply straight-line extrapolations of a few weeks of panic-buying data or sermons about what that person believes should happen in the future. Meanwhile, business managers must make decisions now about how to allocate resources based on assumptions about the future in their markets. This article provides advice about certain customer-management basics in the face of uncertainty.

Keywords: Health Pandemics; Crisis Management; Strategic Planning;

Format: Electronic

Read Now

Citation:

Cespedes, Frank V. "Predictions, Prophets, and Restarting Your Business." Harvard Business School Working Knowledge (May 4, 2020).

In August 2017, Cumplo’s Founder Shea and CEO Kirberg meet to discuss growth and strategy issues faced by this Chilean fintech startup. What sales and marketing strategy will best foster the compny’s growth? Are changes needed in the product lineup? How and when should Cumplo begin to expand beyond Chile, to other countries in Latin America? The company raised $1.4 million in its first three years, mainly from individual investors, and then issued new shares for $3 million in 2015. By June 2017, Cumplo was debt-free, had achieved break-even, and had raised an additional $2.3 million.

The media are often accused of political bias. But news outlets reflect many political beliefs in a fragmented media environment. However, an almost across-the-board bias is how news media talk about digital business, and the pandemic has exacerbated that bias, which is not supported by the data. “Retail apocalypse” is a standard trope in news reports, for instance, but the number of malls in the U.S. went from about 300 in 1970, to 1,000 by the year 2000, and 1200 by 2019, while the biggest retail trend before the pandemic was the opening of brick-and-mortar stores by once pure-play ecommerce firms like Casper, Warby Parker, Wayfair, Amazon, and others. One reason for this gap may be that employment decline for journalists in the 21st century was deeper than job losses over the past three decades in the coal mining, iron, steel, or fishing industries. Journalists have seen their industry and livelihoods negatively disrupted by technology, and may assume this is happening everywhere. That’s understandable, but it’s still a bias and leads to publishing stories that fit an assumed narrative.

Because customer acquisition and retention are the lifeblood of a for-profit enterprise, sales activities establish foundational conditions for a business. In turn, sales managers’ responsibilities in a crisis extend beyond keeping the lights on. Their leadership makes a difference across the business because, for better or worse, selling always affects core drivers like cash flow, cross-functional asset allocations in response to closed sales, and post-sale services, among others. This article discusses three areas where sales managers typically have the most influence in affecting how their companies navigate the current crisis.

Faculty & Research

Predictions, Prophets, and Restarting Your Business

Abstract

Citation:

About the Author

More from the Author