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  • 2021
  • Working Paper
  • HBS Working Paper Series

Elusive Safety: The New Geography of Capital Flows and Risk

By: Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia, Ruth Judson and Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr
  • Format:Print
  • | Language:English
  • | Pages:48
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Abstract

A confidential dataset with industry-level disaggregation of U.S. cross-border claims and liabilities, shows U.S. securities to be increasingly intermediated by tax-haven-financial-centers (THFC) and less regulated funds. These securities are risky, in intangible-intensive sectors, requiring higher Sharpe ratios; while the foreign-official sector mainly holds Treasuries. Facts on private securities are rationalized through a model where firms with heterogeneous default probabilities, and funded by global intermediaries, endogenously locate affiliates in THFCs. A decline in the cost of funds or in THFC's taxes/regulation, raises profits and firms' incentives to enter THFCs. Firms appear elusively safe, intermediaries reduce monitoring incentives and debt risk increases.

Keywords

Tax Havens; Financial Centers; Geography Of Flows; Profit Shifting; Tax Avoidance; Risk; Safe Assets; Hetergeneous Firms; Endogenous Entry; Endogenous Monitoring; Regulatory Arbitrage; Assets; Safety; Risk and Uncertainty; Capital; Global Range

Citation

Alfaro, Laura, Ester Faia, Ruth Judson, and Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr. "Elusive Safety: The New Geography of Capital Flows and Risk." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-099, March 2020. (Revised February 2021.)
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About The Author

Laura Alfaro

General Management
→More Publications

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More from the Authors
  • Distributional Consequences of Monetary Policy Across Races: Evidence from the U.S. Credit Register By: Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia and Camelia Minoiu
  • El Salvador: Launching Bitcoin as Legal Tender By: Laura Alfaro, Carla Larangeira and Ruth Costas
  • Can Evidence-Based Information Shift Preferences Towards Trade Policy? By: Laura Alfaro, Maggie X. Chen and Davin Chor
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