Publications
Publications
- 2021
- HBS Working Paper Series
Elusive Safety: The New Geography of Capital Flows and Risk
By: Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia, Ruth Judson and Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr
Abstract
A confidential dataset with industry-level disaggregation of U.S. cross-border claims and liabilities, shows U.S. securities to be increasingly intermediated by tax-haven-financial-centers (THFC) and less regulated funds. These securities are risky, in intangible-intensive sectors, requiring higher Sharpe ratios; while the foreign-official sector mainly holds Treasuries. Facts on private securities are rationalized through a model where firms with heterogeneous default probabilities, and funded by global intermediaries, endogenously locate affiliates in THFCs. A decline in the cost of funds or in THFC's taxes/regulation, raises profits and firms' incentives to enter THFCs. Firms appear elusively safe, intermediaries reduce monitoring incentives and debt risk increases.
Keywords
Tax Havens; Geography Of Flows; Profit Shifting; Tax Avoidance; Risk; Safe Assets; Endogenous Entry; Regulatory Arbitrage; Assets; Safety; Risk And Uncertainty; Capital; Global Range
Citation
Alfaro, Laura, Ester Faia, Ruth Judson, and Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr. "Elusive Safety: The New Geography of Capital Flows and Risk." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-099, March 2020. (Revised February 2021.)
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