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Publications
Publications
  • 2020
  • Working Paper

Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time

By: Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari, Andrew Greenland and Peter K. Schott
  • Format:Print
  • | Language:English
  • | Pages:32
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Abstract

We show that unexpected changes in the trajectory of COVID-19 infections predict U.S. stock returns, in real time. Parameter estimates indicate that an unanticipated doubling (halving) of projected infections forecasts next-day decreases (increases) in aggregate U.S. market value of 4 to 11 percent, indicating that equity markets may begin to rebound even as infections continue to rise, if the trajectory of the disease becomes less severe than initially anticipated. Using the same variation in unanticipated projected cases, we find that COVID-19-related losses in market value at the firm level rise with capital intensity and leverage, and are deeper in industries more conducive to disease transmission. These relationships provide important insight into current record job losses. Measuring US states' drops in market value as the employment weighted average declines of the industries they produce, we find that states with milder drops in market value exhibit larger initial jobless claims per worker. This initially counter-intuitive result suggests that investors value the relative ease with which labor versus capital costs can be shed as revenues decline.

Keywords

Covid-19; Stock Returns; Health Pandemics; Stocks; Investment Return; Forecasting And Prediction

Citation

Alfaro, Laura, Anusha Chari, Andrew Greenland, and Peter K. Schott. "Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 26950, April 2020. (Revised May 2020.)
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About The Author

Laura Alfaro

General Management
→More Publications

More from the Authors

    • March 2021
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    On the Direct and Indirect Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks

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    • December 2020
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    Latam Airlines and COVID-19: Seeking Bankruptcy Protection in the United States

    By: Laura Alfaro
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    Reserve Accumulation, Sovereign Debt, and Exchange Rate Policy

    By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
More from the Authors
  • On the Direct and Indirect Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks By: Laura Alfaro, Manuel García-Santana and Enrique Moral-Benito
  • Latam Airlines and COVID-19: Seeking Bankruptcy Protection in the United States By: Laura Alfaro
  • Reserve Accumulation, Sovereign Debt, and Exchange Rate Policy By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
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