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  • Journal of Comparative Economics

Populism and the Return of the 'Paranoid Style': Some Evidence and a Simple Model of Demand for Incompetence as Insurance against Elite Betrayal

By: Rafael Di Tella and Julio J. Rotemberg
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Abstract

We present a simple model of populism as the rejection of “disloyal” leaders. We show that adding the assumption that people are worse off when they experience low income as a result of leader betrayal (than when it is the result of bad luck) to a simple voter choice model yields a preference for incompetent leaders even if all leaders have the same underlying probability of betrayal. These deliver worse material outcomes in general, but they reduce the feelings of betrayal during bad times. Some evidence consistent with our model is gathered from the Trump-Clinton 2016 election: on average, subjects primed with the importance of competence in policymaking decrease their support for Trump, the candidate who scores lower on competence in our survey (even amongst Trump supporters). But two groups respond to the treatment with a large (approximately 5 percentage points) increase in their support for Donald Trump: those living in rural areas and those that are low educated, white and living in urban and suburban areas.

Keywords

Populism; Corruption; Betrayal; Incompetence; Voting; Attitudes

Citation

Di Tella, Rafael, and Julio J. Rotemberg. "Populism and the Return of the 'Paranoid Style': Some Evidence and a Simple Model of Demand for Incompetence as Insurance against Elite Betrayal." Journal of Comparative Economics 46, no. 4 (December 2018): 988–1005.
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About The Author

Rafael M. Di Tella

Business, Government and the International Economy
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More from the Authors
  • Brazil's Messias? The Lava Jato Corruption Scandal, the Recession, and the Rise of Bolsonaro By: Rafael Di Tella and Jose Liberti
  • Liz Truss and the Thatcher Legacy: Markets and Fiscal Dominance in the United Kingdom By: Rafael Di Tella, Pablo Ottonello and David Allen
  • The Political Economy of a 'Miracle Cure': The Case of Nebulized Ibuprofen and Its Diffusion in Argentina By: Sebastian Calónico, Rafael Di Tella and Juan Cruz Lopez Del Valle
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