2020
Working Paper
HBS Working Paper Series

How Do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates

By: Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons

Format:Print
| Language:English
| Pages:152

Abstract

Using multi-country data from 62 elections since 1952, we show that 17% to 29% of voters make up their mind during the final two months of campaigns, generating sizeable swings in candidates’ vote shares. We obtain these results by measuring the consistency between vote intention and vote choice of respondents surveyed at different points before, and then again after, the election. Changes in vote choice are concomitant to shifts in salient issues and beliefs about candidates, while policy preferences remain remarkably stable. Televised debates do not affect vote choice formation, suggesting that information continuously received by voters is more impactful.

Keywords

Political Debates; TV Debates; Voting; Political Elections; Decision Making; Surveys

Citation

Le Pennec, Caroline, and Vincent Pons. "How Do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 26572, December 2019. (Also Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-031, September 2019. Revised July 2020.)