Regression to the Mean, Expectation Inflation, and the Winner's Curse in Organizational Contexts

J. R. Harrison; M. H. Bazerman

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Chapter | The Social Context of Negotiation. | 1995

Regression to the Mean, Expectation Inflation, and the Winner's Curse in Organizational Contexts

by J. R. Harrison and M. H. Bazerman

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Conflict and Resolution; Competition; Organizational Structure;

Format: Print

Citation:

Harrison, J. R., and M. H. Bazerman. "Regression to the Mean, Expectation Inflation, and the Winner's Curse in Organizational Contexts." In The Social Context of Negotiation. edited by R. Kramer and D. M. Messick. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, 1995.

About the Author

Max H. Bazerman

Jesse Isidor Straus Professor of Business Administration

Negotiation, Organizations & Markets

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Article | Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy | 2019

Pay-for-Monopoly?: An Assessment of Reverse Payment Deals by Pharmaceutical Companies

Sana Rafiq and Max Bazerman

Citation:
Rafiq, Sana, and Max Bazerman. "Pay-for-Monopoly? An Assessment of Reverse Payment Deals by Pharmaceutical Companies." Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy 3, no. 1 (2019): 37–43. View Details

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Working Paper | 2019

Redirecting Rawlsian Reasoning toward the Greater Good

Joshua D. Greene, Karen Huang and Max Bazerman

Citation:
Greene, Joshua D., Karen Huang, and Max Bazerman. "Redirecting Rawlsian Reasoning toward the Greater Good." Working Paper, 2019. View Details

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Working Paper | 2019

Veil-of-Ignorance Reasoning Favors the Greater Good

Karen Huang, Joshua D. Greene and Max Bazerman

The “veil of ignorance” is a moral reasoning device designed to promote impartial decision-making by denying decision-makers access to potentially biasing information about who will benefit most or least from the available options. Veil-of-ignorance reasoning was originally applied by philosophers and economists to foundational questions concerning the overall organization of society. Here we apply veil-of-ignorance reasoning in a more focused way to specific moral dilemmas, all of which involve a tension between the greater good and competing moral concerns. Across six experiments (N = 5,785), three pre-registered, we find that veil-of-ignorance reasoning favors the greater good. Participants first engaged in veil-of-ignorance reasoning about a specific dilemma, asking themselves what they would want if they did not know who among those affected they would be. Participants then responded to a more conventional version of the same dilemma with a moral judgment, a policy preference, or an economic choice. Participants who first engaged in veil-of-ignorance reasoning subsequently made more utilitarian choices in response to a classic philosophical dilemma, a medical dilemma, a real donation decision between a more vs. less effective charity, and a policy decision concerning the social dilemma of autonomous vehicles. These effects depend on the impartial thinking induced by veil-of-ignorance reasoning and cannot be explained by a simple anchoring account, probabilistic reasoning, or generic perspective-taking. These studies indicate that veil-of-ignorance reasoning may be a useful tool for decision-makers who wish to make more impartial and/or socially beneficial choices.

Keywords: policy-making; procedural justice; Ethics; Decision Making; Fairness;

Citation:
Huang, Karen, Joshua D. Greene, and Max Bazerman. "Veil-of-Ignorance Reasoning Favors the Greater Good." Working Paper, July 2019. View Details

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Regression to the Mean, Expectation Inflation, and the Winner's Curse in Organizational Contexts

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