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  • 2019
  • Working Paper

Labor Market Shocks and the Demand for Trade Protection: Evidence from Online Surveys

By: Rafael Di Tella and Dani Rodrik
  • Format:Print
  • | Language:English
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Abstract

We study preferences for government action in response to layoffs resulting from different types of labor-market shocks. We consider the following shocks: technological change, a demand shift, bad management, and three kinds of international outsourcing. Respondents are given a choice among no government action, compensatory transfers, and trade protection. In response to these shocks, support for government intervention generally rises sharply and is heavily biased towards trade protection. Demand for import protection increases significantly in all cases, except for the “bad management” shock. Trade shocks generate more demand for protectionism, and, among trade shocks, outsourcing to a developing country elicits greater demand for protectionism than outsourcing to a developed country. The “bad management” shock is the only scenario that induces a desired increase in compensatory transfers. Effects appear to be heterogeneous across subgroups with different political preferences and education. Trump supporters are more protectionist than Clinton supporters, but preferences seem easy to manipulate: Clinton supporters primed with trade shocks are as protectionist as baseline Trump voters. Highlighting labor abuses in the exporting country increases the demand for trade protection by Clinton supporters but not Trump supporters.

Keywords

Labor; Markets; System Shocks; Trade; Attitudes; Surveys

Citation

Di Tella, Rafael, and Dani Rodrik. "Labor Market Shocks and the Demand for Trade Protection: Evidence from Online Surveys." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 25705, March 2019.
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About The Author

Rafael M. Di Tella

Business, Government and the International Economy
→More Publications

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More from the Authors
  • The Trouble with TCE By: Vincent Pons and Rafael Di Tella
  • Causal Inference During A Pandemic: Evidence on the Effectiveness of Nebulized Ibuprofen as an Unproven Treatment for COVID-19 in Argentina By: Sebastian Calonico, Rafael Di Tella and Juan Cruz Lopez Del Valle
  • Does Social Media Cause Polarization? Evidence from Access to Twitter Echo Chambers during the 2019 Argentine Presidential Debate By: Rafael Di Tella, Ramiro H. Gálvez and Ernesto Schargrodsky
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