Business, Governments and Political Risk in South Asia and Latin America since 1970

This article contributes to the literature on political risk in business and economic history by examining both new perspectives (risk encountered by companies domestically, rather than risk for foreign investors) and new settings (emerging markets economies in Latin America and South Asia). It makes use of the Creating Emerging Markets oral history database at the Harvard Business School to examine business leaders’ perceptions of political risk over time between the 1970s and the present day, employing NVivo coding of the dataset to move beyond simple descriptive use of the content. The article identifies five major sources of risk operating in both geographies. Macroeconomic and policy turbulence emerged as the biggest source of risk for Latin Americans, while excessive bureaucracy was the biggest source of risk for South Asians. Political instability, corruption, and violence were other sources of risk encountered by many firms. The article examines not only the types of risk found in different environments, but also how interviewees discussed and responded to risk. In the case of corruption, although most countries surveyed had similarly high levels of corruption, it manifested itself differently in different regions. Especially informative was the issue of bureaucratic risk. Although interviewees in both regions reported having to dedicate significant time to navigating government regulation, interviewees in South Asia frequently reported attempting to stay away from highly regulated industries, while many interviewees in Latin America discussed how they adapted to heavier government oversight by forming closer ties or working relationships with incumbent administrations. This article demonstrates how oral history testimony can deepen and nuance current understandings of the evolution of business in emerging markets over the last half century. It can shed light on sensitive topics that are hard to study using written sources alone and adds nuance to phenomena commonly surveyed or measured qualitatively.