You Can't Always Get What You Want: The Real Exchange Rate and Manufacturing Performance in a World of Global Value Chains

Laura  Alfaro; Alejandro  Cuñat; Harald  Fadinger; Yanping  Liu

Article | Vox, CEPR Policy Portal

You Can't Always Get What You Want: The Real Exchange Rate and Manufacturing Performance in a World of Global Value Chains

by Laura Alfaro, Alejandro Cuñat, Harald Fadinger and Yanping Liu

Abstract

Real exchange rate devaluations are typically seen as a viable development strategy, but the effectiveness of the approach may vary over time and across countries. This column explores this issue by focusing on the microeconomics of firm-level responses to exchange rate fluctuations. Results show varying patterns of responses to fluctuations by region and by import/export orientation. These results highlight the crucial role of a firm’s integration in global value chains.

Keywords: manufacturing performance; Real exchange rate; Global value chains; Economics; Production; Performance;

Format: Electronic

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Citation:

Alfaro, Laura, Alejandro Cuñat, Harald Fadinger, and Yanping Liu. "You Can't Always Get What You Want: The Real Exchange Rate and Manufacturing Performance in a World of Global Value Chains." Vox, CEPR Policy Portal (October 2, 2018).

In the decades following 2005, China faced significant financial challenges. Inflation spiraled upwards and China’s economy stagnated in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. The country’s leaders took an interventionist approach to weather the storm, controlling capital and exchange rates. These actions raised criticism from other nations, and in 2017 the U.S. initiated the U.S.-China Trade Wars, which enforced tariffs and requirements for increased transparency. As implications of the trade wars remained uncertain, many wondered whether the central bank would introduce further discreet steps to change the yuan. Would China’s currency appreciate as substantially against the U.S. dollar as predicted by economists? And when would further change occur? The stakes were high; a freer yuan float would impact groups within and outside of China very differently. Would China’s currency then be allowed to depreciate or appreciate if fundamentals required it?

For decades, Chile was heralded as South America’s pillar of stable economic growth. Chile was the world’s largest producer of copper and enjoyed a long period of over 30 years of world demand for its resources. In 2013, the commodity boom ended and was replaced by a slow period of economic activity. By 2019, a culmination of factors had contributed to widespread protests. Major streets in Santiago were shut down due to demonstrations by workers across 20 ports. Mining unions urged the government to lift the state of emergency and end curfews. It was unclear how these stoppages would affect copper production and prices in a country that produced a third of the world’s supply.

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You Can't Always Get What You Want: The Real Exchange Rate and Manufacturing Performance in a World of Global Value Chains

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