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  • 2021
  • Working Paper
  • HBS Working Paper Series

Coordination and Bandwagon Effects of Candidate Rankings: Evidence from Runoff Elections

By: Riako Granzier, Vincent Pons and Clémence Tricaud
  • Format:Print
  • | Language:English
  • | Pages:154
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Abstract

Candidates’ placements in polls or past elections can be powerful coordination devices for both parties and voters. Using a regression discontinuity design in French elections, we show that candidates who place first by only a small margin in the first round are more likely to stay in the race, win, and win conditionally on staying in than those who place second. The impacts are even larger for ranking second instead of third, and also present for third instead of fourth. Rankings’ effects are largest when candidates have the same political orientation (making coordination more important), but remain strong when only two candidates qualify for the second round (and coordination is not needed). They stem from allied parties agreeing on which candidate should drop out, voters coordinating their choice, and the “bandwagon effect” of desiring to vote for the winner. We find similar results in two-round elections across 19 other countries.

Keywords

Strategic Voting; Coordination; Bandwagon Effect; Regression Discontinuity Design; French Elections; Voting; Political Elections; Behavior; France

Citation

Granzier, Riako, Vincent Pons, and Clémence Tricaud. "Coordination and Bandwagon Effects of Candidate Rankings: Evidence from Runoff Elections." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 26599, November 2021. (Also Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-026.)
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About The Author

Vincent Pons

Business, Government and the International Economy
→More Publications

More from the Authors

    • April 2022
    • American Economic Review

    Does Context Outweigh Individual Characteristics in Driving Voting Behavior? Evidence from Relocations within the U.S.

    By: Enrico Cantoni and Vincent Pons
    • 2022
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    Can a Website Bring Unemployment Down? Experimental Evidence from France

    By: Aïcha Ben Dhia, Bruno Crépon, Esther Mbih, Louise Paul-Delvaux, Bertille Picard and Vincent Pons
    • 2022
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    The Impact of Campaign Finance Rules on Candidate Selection and Electoral Outcomes: Evidence from France

    By: Nikolaj Broberg, Vincent Pons and Clémence Tricaud
More from the Authors
  • Does Context Outweigh Individual Characteristics in Driving Voting Behavior? Evidence from Relocations within the U.S. By: Enrico Cantoni and Vincent Pons
  • Can a Website Bring Unemployment Down? Experimental Evidence from France By: Aïcha Ben Dhia, Bruno Crépon, Esther Mbih, Louise Paul-Delvaux, Bertille Picard and Vincent Pons
  • The Impact of Campaign Finance Rules on Candidate Selection and Electoral Outcomes: Evidence from France By: Nikolaj Broberg, Vincent Pons and Clémence Tricaud
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