2020
Working Paper
HBS Working Paper Series

The Large Effects of a Small Win: How Past Rankings Shape the Behavior of Voters and Candidates

By: Vincent Pons and Clémence Tricaud

Format:Print
| Language:English
| Pages:116

Abstract

To predict others’ behavior and make their own choices, voters and candidates can rely on information provided by polls and past election results. We isolate the impact of candidates’ rankings using an RDD in French local and parliamentary two-round elections, where up to 3 or 4 candidates can qualify for the second round. Candidates who barely ranked first in the first round are more likely to run in the second round (5.6pp), win (5.8pp), and win conditionally on running (2.9 to 5.9pp), than those who barely ranked second. The effects are even larger for ranking second instead of third (23.5, 9.9, and 6.9 to 12.2pp), and also present for ranking third instead of fourth (14.6, 2.2, and 3.0 to 5.0pp). The impact of rankings is largest when the candidates have the same political orientation (making coordination relatively more important and desirable), but it remains strong when two candidates only qualify for the second round (and there is no need for coordination). Overall, our evidence suggests that both coordination and bandwagon effects are important drivers of the behavior of candidates and voters and of election outcomes.

Keywords

Strategic Voting; Coordination; Bandwagon Effect; Regression Discontinuity Design; French Elections; Voting; Political Elections; Behavior; France

Citation

Pons, Vincent, and Clémence Tricaud. "The Large Effects of a Small Win: How Past Rankings Shape the Behavior of Voters and Candidates." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 26599, December 2019. (Also Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-026, September 2018. Revised September 2020.)